Will an International Travel Ban Help Contain Omicron?
Dear Reader,
We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and well. Since we last wrote to you, our work at Takshashila has included early assessments of policy responses to the new Omicron variant, the Iran-Pakistan rivalry in Afghanistan, and an examination of the personal data protection bill.
Will an International Travel Ban Help Contain Omicron?
Mahek Nankani and Harshit Kukreja, in an article on News18.com, posit that a ban on international travel will do more harm than good to India’s efforts to contain the new Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. The authors argue that a ban, in addition to dampening ongoing steps towards economic recovery, will effectively punish countries such as South Africa for being diligent with detection. They write:
We have far more critical things to worry about right now than emphasising an air travel ban. To begin with, all states and Union Territories must stay vigilant and monitor the situation in their geographies. An uptick in vaccination drive must accompany this. So far, we don’t have any statistics on vaccine inefficiency; therefore, the vaccine is our best shot against COVID-19. We must enforce the wearing of masks in public places, maintain social distance and follow hand hygiene, at all times. The present genome sequencing estimations in India are based on evaluating only 0.2 per cent of the total samples. It is imperative that we increase it to at least 5 per cent. INSACOG can also be asked to release its comprehensive data and daily updates. More private laboratories should be roped in for enhancing genomic surveillance in the country.
India Needs a 20-Year Semiconductor Strategy
In the Times of India, Pranay Kotasthane and Arjun Gargeyas write about the need for India to develop a coherent 20-year semiconductor strategy. The narrative surrounding India’s semiconductor policy has focussed on building a fab. The authors argue that the importance given to building a fab is misplaced.
Getting one fab going will not make India a key manufacturer, leave alone become self-sufficient. We would still be dependent on manufacturing equipment, designs, and chips manufactured outside India. This assertion holds for the more affluent economies as well. For instance, speaking about the EU’s prospects, its competition chief Margrethe Vestager said that given the high level of investments needed, becoming fully self-sufficient in semiconductors is not possible. The main reason is the cost of installing and running a fab. Leading fab companies such as TSMC and Samsung spend nearly 30bn$ every year on capital expenditure, more than the cost of all private sector projects sanctioned by Indian banks and financial institutions in 2019-20.
Instead, India needs a 20-year roadmap backed by a financial support plan. The government can fund new semiconductor materials research, new design architectures for critical equipment, intellectual property protection, and technical standards. Over a two-decade period, this could give global investors the confidence to co-invest in a leading-edge fab in India.
Finally, the authors highlight the role of foreign policy in India’s semiconductor policy. To find out more, read the full article.
Strongman Politics and Accidental Wars
In ThePrint, Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon uses Carl von Clausewitz’s theory of escalation to illustrate the growing risk of accidental wars across the world and the role of strongmen politicians.
According to Clausewitz’s ‘trinity’ theory, the prime escalatory force originates as a result of violence unleashed by hatred and hostility between societies. The second force is chance, resulting in uncertainty and the near-impossibility of forecasting action-reaction produced by adversarial military forces in contact. This is also accentuated by misperceptions, miscommunications, and misjudgements and described as the ‘fog of war.’ The third force is political rationality that resides in the decision-making of the leadership. This is the force that can contain escalation through decisions that are driven by caution.
He argues that the lack of caution and show of strength that characterise the politics of strongmen leaders can be the catalysts for initiating a war that nobody wants.
How the Iran-Pakistan Rivalry Benefits India
In an article in the Times of India, Shrey Khanna writes about the Pakistan-Iran rivalry in Afghanistan and how India benefits from it. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran’s strategic ambition in Afghanistan has conflicted with that of Pakistan. He argues:
Despite the public portrayal of a “cordial” relationship between the two Islamic Republics, their intelligence services – the ISI and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – remain engaged in a geostrategic rivalry in the region. Thus, the ISI has used jihadi outfits like Jundullah and Jaish al-Adl to destabilise Iran, whereas the IRGC supports Baloch insurgents in Pakistan.
After the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, Shrey writes, Tehran’s nervousness became evident. When reports of ISI intervention against the resistance in Panjshir Valley became public, anger mounted in Iran. Iran also made a common cause with India and Tajikistan to denounce foreign intervention in Afghanistan. India must engage with Iran to secure a favourable balance in the neighbourhood.
Dissent on the Personal Data Protection Bill
The Personal Data Protection Bill is expected to be up for discussion during the Winter Session of Parliament. The bill has been with a Joint Parliamentary Committee. The discussions have evidently been contentious, with Jairam Ramesh, an MP and a member of the committee making public a dissent note to the committee chairperson. On the 30th November episode of All Things Policy, Rohan Seth spoke to Sapni G K and Prateek Waghre about these developments.
We Are Creating a Community Of Researchers
Applications for the January 2022 cohort of Takshashila’s public policy courses are now open.
Over the last few months, two of our research outputs, Governance of Digital Communication Networks I: Categorisation of Harms and India’s Semiconductor Ecosystem: A SWOT Analysis, have been collaborative efforts between our researchers and the alumni of our public policy programmes. Similarly, we have a dedicated section on our Takshashila school website for articles by our students.
The Graduate Certificate in Public Policy, in addition to introducing students to essential frameworks, resources and specific subject domains, trains them to generate intellectual capital and engage in policy discourse. As a result, many of our alumni continue to write regularly for news publications, maintain regular blogs, start newsletters or even create podcasts and videos.
You’ll find our 5000+ alumni in places like the military, academia, media houses, all major political parties, the bureaucracy (IAS, IPS, IRS, IFS), and companies of all types and sizes.
Thus, our pedagogy gives you the freedom to get a comprehensive understanding of the policy ecosystem while keeping your day job and empowers you to engage with critical policy issues effectively.
The Graduate Certificate in Public Policy course is offered over 12 weeks. The Post-Graduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) is offered over 48 weeks.
Visit the Takshashila policy school website to find more details about the programmes and submit your application. And please spread the word to people you think would be interested.
The January cohorts of both GCPP and PGP begin on 15th January 2022. The 10% early bird scholarship on our courses ends tomorrow, 4th December 2021.
What We Have Been Reading
This week’s book is Does the Elephant Dance by David M Malone. Recommending it, Arjun Gargeyas says:
If you're an international relations geek, this book offers a comprehensive view of contemporary Indian foreign policy. What I find really interesting about the book is the author explains how history had a vital role to play in independent India's foreign policy choices. While the book may seem outdated with the current fast-paced developments across the world, the text is a solid foundation for the origins of the country's diplomatic decisions. Malone seamlessly explains the nation's transition from a reluctant power to gaining a seat at some of the world's most powerful multilateral forums.
Get reading!
That’s it from us this week. Take care and stay safe!