What’s China Up To In Tibet: A Geospatial Analysis
Here’s a short quiz question. What do you do on your days off from work? Go shopping at the mall? Watch a movie on Netflix? Catch up on sleep? Play cricket with the neighbourhood kids? If you peer into Prof Y Nithiyanandanam’s room over the weekends, you will find him do nothing of the sort. Instead, the man is busy poring over extensive geospatial data to understand and analyse what is China up to across its border with India. And then, he writes India’s most interesting geospatial bulletin.
Nithiya is one of the country’s foremost geospatial tech experts. He has a master’s degree in spatial information technology and a PhD in remote sensing and modelling. He has worked with some of the top government and private institutions in the country and abroad, and he is currently the head of Takshashila’s geospatial programme. Naturally, we take everything he does seriously.
In his latest bulletin, Nithiya unlocks Tibet with his in-depth mapping of the autonomous region’s transport infrastructure using geospatial techniques. He writes:
“Tibet's transport infrastructure has grown massively since 1959, with a 16-fold increase in road networks, the introduction of strategic rail lines, and new air infrastructures bolstering China's logistical capabilities and regional connectivity.”
This is significant by any standard because if there ever is a border conflict with China, this study will have both strategic and tactical significance.
“Despite its sparsely populated mountainous terrain, constructing rail lines in Tibet has been a strategic imperative for China. The inauguration of Tibet’s first rail line, the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, in 2006 was a significant milestone. This strategic vision is evident in that by 2020, Tibet had only about 800 km of railway, a length comparable to that of Shanghai, despite Tibet being approximately 200 times larger in land area. However, this scenario is beginning to change. In 2021, China launched Tibet’s first high-speed rail line, connecting the regional capital Lhasa with Nyingchi. This line significantly enhances the capability to transport civilians swiftly, as well as PLA troops and equipment, across the eastern part of Tibet, thereby bolstering China's logistical capabilities. The implications of these developments are underscored by notable railroads such as Qinghai-Tibet (2000 km) and Sichuan-Tibet Railway, which connects Tibet externally; meanwhile, Lhasa-Shigatse (253 km) and Lhasa-Nyingchi (435 km) are the major rail projects that network internally within Tibet, underscoring the importance of Tibet's transport infrastructure.”
You don’t need to be a strategic expert to understand why this is important. Nithiya does not stop at just that. He has multiple detailed maps and other data to back his analysis.
You can find all of that and more right here. And while you are at it, subscribe to the bulletin, and get brownie points at the next watercooler chat at your workplace.
India needs tough reforms to cut defence pensions
It is no secret that the Agnipath scheme has been a bone of contention between the BJP-led government and the opposition. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has written to President Droupadi Murmu terming the scheme “discriminatory.”
The Congress’ election manifesto stated that the party would “abolish the Agnipath programme and direct the Armed Forces (Army, Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard) to resume normal recruitment to achieve the full sanctioned strength”.
The BJP manifesto, on the other hand, maintains that the four-year enlistment programme will benefit a large section of the young and employable population. It has also stated that it is open to changes in the scheme after a review conducted by the Services.
Okay, here’s the thing. One of the primary drivers of the Agnipath scheme — introduced in 2002, where soldiers enrolled for four years are termed Agniveers — is the reduction of the burgeoning pension payout that has a deleterious effect on military modernisation due to the resultant reduced availability of funds. For example, in the interim 2024-25 budget presented before the general election, 30 per cent of the defence allocation is earmarked for pay and allowances, while 22.7 per cent is for pensions. Less than 28 per cent is allocated for modernisation of the defence forces.
Something’s gotta give, right? Well, Lt Gen Dr Prakash Menon writes in his latest column for The Print:
“What is important for the political leadership is to accept that even if the Agnipath scheme is scrapped, another scheme has to be put in place that protects military effectiveness and reduces the budget outgo on pensions. In any case, for the next decade and a half, until the pension outgo starts shrinking due to the Agnipath scheme, India’s defence budget will have to be boosted to cater to the growing demands of modernisation and the pension bill. There has been no sign for several decades of such boosting being done. Surely, the darkening clouds of global and regional geopolitical confrontation provide justification. The newly elected government must display its recognition of the need by expanding the defence budget and making necessary changes to the Agnipath scheme.”
You can read his excellent presentation of the problem and its rich analysis here.
We Need Transparent Public Health Communication
It is a no-brainer, but as French Nobel laureate André Gide once put it: “Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again.”
Shambhavi Naik and Saurabh Todi are acutely aware that AstraZeneca, the makers of the Covid vaccine, had acknowledged the risk of rare cases of Thrombosis Thrombocytopenia Syndrome (TTS), but it had done so only with regulators in Europe. The public at large were not aware. Naturally, AstraZeneca’s recent admission in this regard has made people anxious, including Indians.
They write:
“The Oxford-AstraZeneca’s Covid vaccine was marketed as Covishield in India and Vaxzevria in Europe and few other countries. The vaccine was manufactured and marketed in India in partnership with the Serum Institute of India in Pune and contributed to the country’s fight against the deadly COVID-19 pandemic. India, in general, does not have a high incidence of vaccine hesitancy. However, the lack of risk communication around COVID-19 vaccines at the time of deployment can erode public confidence going forward.”
There is a larger question, though. It is that of adequate and appropriate public health communication.
“Recent controversies over vaccine side effects can erode public confidence in vaccinations. This can negatively impact public health outcomes in India, particularly for the poorer demographic. Hence, it is important that India continues to emphasise the importance and safety of vaccinations, acknowledge risks associated with the vaccines, set up mechanisms to assess such risks and communicate these to the public at the time of deployment.”
Read the full piece here. Also, Takshashila’s previous work on this very topic can be found here and here.
China’s Vision for Global Security, Shangri-La Edition
In her latest blog post, Takshashila’s Anushka Saxena decodes the recent happenings at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. As Anushka reports,
“Representing China, Defence Minister Dong Jun and former vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai, participated in deliberations to make a case for China’s vision for the global order. The stark differences in the positions they presented, as well as the questions they were prompted to answer, indicate two things about Chinese narratives on security issues – one, that there is an intense internal debate, and two, that they are becoming increasingly unconvincing and unpopular.”
What exactly happened?
In her post, Anushka adds:
“Overall, the show Chinese representatives put up at the SLD was frenzied and incoherent. The Taiwan issue emerged as more important than ever as compared to previous SLD iterations, with more officials elaborating on it either during their remarks, or during the Q&A and press conferences. However, this time, other countries and participants’ responses to China were much more firm, in large part because Dong Jun failed in passing on a constructive message of cooperation. In doing so, he projected the image of a China that will not negotiate or accommodate, even if he meant otherwise. And Cui’s remarks, though balanced, would be perceived as less significant, given that he is retired from active political service.”
Read her full piece here.
The Elections and India’s Foreign Policy
The dust has settled, the heat is abating and making way for the monsoon, and India’s new government is taking charge for a third term. The questions at Takshashila discussions, therefore, are topical: what are the new government’s options as regards our foreign policy and strategic priorities?
This past week, Takshashila’s Manoj Kewalramani, Yusuf Unjhawala and Sachin Kalbag addressed these questions on two different platforms: Manoj on YouTube with senior journalist Neena Gopal and the latter two in their All Things Policy podcast episode.
You can hear Manoj’s views here, and Yusuf and Sachin’s chat here.
And:
Munnabhai’s Doctor, Policy Analyst
We have often mentioned how Pranay Kotasthane is actually Malayalam superstar Fahadh Faasil in disguise. How else do you explain his love for Indian cinema in his policy analyses? Pranay has denied this allegation, of course, but it does not help his cause when he headlines his latest piece with the famous doctor from Munnabhai MBBS, Dr Jagdish Chandra Asthana, played by the irrepressible Boman Irani.
Pranay and his co-author Madhav Kanchiraju feel that Dr Asthana would have made a great policy analyst because, in the movie, the good (or bad) doctor says empathy can impair a medical professional’s ability to give the best treatment to a patient.
Here’s what they say in their op-ed for Outlook Business:
“In the world of public policy, the doctor is correct. If we’re keen to develop better policies, we must avoid empathy and replace it with compassion as a guide.”
They elaborate:
“Empathy is the ability to understand and share another person's feelings. It involves stepping into someone else's shoes and experiencing their emotional state as if it were one's own. Empathy can be an excellent motivation for community action and for trust-building across groups. However, when imported into public policy, this approach can cause us to become overly invested in the plight of a specific individual or group, leading us to overlook broader systemic implications of state action. This myopic view can result in proposing emotive, simplistic solutions that fail to address the root causes of complex social issues.”
Pranay and Madhav share examples of what exactly they mean. It is an interesting take on public policy and what it entails when policymakers work for the citizens. You can read their piece here.
India’s space ambitions need private participation
Agnikul’s first rocket, Agnibaan SOrTeD, completed its maiden suborbital test flight, marking a significant milestone for the Indian private space industry. As Ashwin Prasad points out in First Post:
“Accessing space is now easier than ever, creating new growth and innovation opportunities. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has developed the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) to enable quick and flexible on-demand launches, complementing its existing fleet of Polar Satellite Launch Vehicles (PSLV) and Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicles (GSLV) for heavier payloads.”
What does this mean for India’s grand space ambitions? Ashwin explains:
“In the rapidly evolving field of satellite and space technology, there is a growing demand for dedicated small satellite launches. This is where Agnikul plans to come in by providing dedicated, optimised launch vehicles for small payloads to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) that can be launched from potentially anywhere. However, heavy launch missions have significant advantages over dedicated ones. For instance, multiple smaller payloads can be launched together on heavy launch vehicles, which makes these missions significantly cheaper.”
Read his full piece here.
Wait! There’s More
There’s been a host of comments from Takshashila’s scholars and researchers on various topics over the last week or so. Read or listen to their perceptive and thought-provoking views from the listicle here:
Takshashila’s head of research Shambhai Naik, along with Sarthak Pradhan and Pradeep Mohandas, published their comments on the Demand for Grants (DFGs) by the Ministry of Science and Technology in the Union Budget (FY 2024-25) and can be accessed here.
Rakshith Shetty on how China is far behind on its international commitments for reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of GDP.
Rakshith, once again, on how Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s unusually direct comments in Singapore marked a significant shift in Kyiv’s stance and a long-overdue reckoning with China’s role in the war.
Akshaya Venkatakrishnan asked why the future of Taiwan is increasingly occupying greater salience in Japanese political discourse.
Takshashila co-founder Narayan Ramachandran on why the hype around AI should not distract us from progress in brain studies.
And finally, Anupam Manur and Saurabh Todi discuss the decreasing quality of online reviews and ways in which vendors, platforms and websites game the system to the detriment of consumers.
That’s all from us this week. Take care.