What to Make of the Agnipath Scheme?
Dear Reader,
We hope you are doing well. This week’s edition discusses our researchers’ assessments of the Agnipath scheme, Takshashila’s new techno-strategic doctrine for India, and what the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework means for India-China relations.
The Agnipath Scheme
Last week, Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh announced the Agnipath scheme, under which soldiers (Agniveers) will be enrolled for four years in a tour of duty (ToD) model. About 25 per cent of Agniveers will be absorbed into the regular cadre after four years. Those who leave at the end of four years will not get gratuity and pension entitlements. Over a couple of decades, this could mean only about 25 per cent of the forces will have the pension benefits available to all today.
In their newsletter, Anticipating the Unintended, Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley and Pranay Kotasthane scrutinized the scheme. From a public finance perspective, Pranay argued:
Over the long term, it has the potential to substantially reduce the pension burden. And as RSJ writes, the scheme will have no impact on the allocations for modernisation in the short term. Nevertheless, this scheme is important for the single reason that just as today’s deficits are tomorrow’s taxes, today’s reforms become tomorrow’s savings.
Many commentators suggest that India’s defence expenditure problem can be solved merely by increasing defence expenditure to 3 percent of GDP, from the current allocation of 2.04 percent. That’s hardly the case. Projecting current growth rates of defence spending components over the next ten years suggests that even if the government were to agree to a 3 percent spending, pension spending will grow rapidly enough to allow only an incremental increase in the fiscal space for capital outlay.
Nitin Pai also wrote about the Agnipath scheme in his fortnightly column, The Intersection, in The Mint. Nitin argued:
Now that India’s government has chosen the four-year tour of duty model as the way to respond to its budget constraint, the policy challenge is to ensure that it achieves the desired objectives, mitigates the downsides and pre-empts unintended consequences. Essentially, it is about understanding who might join the armed forces given these employment conditions, and how this new demographic will change the defence services and Indian society at large.
You can read the full piece here.
A Techno-Strategic Doctrine for India
Technology is crucial for India’s development in the Information Age. It is also an essential element of national power. The acquisition of advanced technologies is not an end in itself but a means to bring peace and prosperity to all Indian citizens. Unhindered access to state-of-the-art and foundational knowledge is, therefore, in India’s national interest.
Building on this, our High-Tech Geopolitics team has put forward a technostrategic doctrine identifying India’s technology-related objectives and the approaches it must take to achieve them.
Economic Inequality and Political Violence
Economic inequality has many negative consequences. But could it also motivate individuals and groups to engage in political violence? A recent research paper titled Poor Prospects—Not Inequality—Motivate Political Violence, in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, claims that it is not static inequalities but the deterioration of an individual’s economic prospects that motivates them to engage in political violence.
In the June 20th episode of All Things Policy, Aarushi Kataria and Atish Padhy examined the paper’s claims and theoretical grounding, using other existing literature and approaches in the study of political conflict.
IPEF, Illegal Fishing and India-China Relations
In News18, Yusuf Unjhawala wrote about India’s decision to join the newly announced 13-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) and the announcement of the Quad’s new initiative to combat illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific region under the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness (IPDMA).
Yusuf argues:
Despite the fact that China has not been named, the goal of both of these initiatives is clear: to counter China’s rise and disregard for international law and rules-based order, which has shaken the region. China’s reaction was swift, and it slammed it even before it was officially launched, declaring it as doomed to fail.
India is targeting multiple objectives.
One, India is telling China that it’s game on – in the strategic competition that China has initiated. India had tried to work a modus vivendi with China after the Doklam stand-off with the two informal summits that Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated with Chinese President Xi Jinping. But this was rebuffed violently by China with the Galwan clash in June 2020 that resulted in the killing of 20 Indian soldiers and 45 Chinese troops, after China intruded into Indian territory in multiple places in India’s Union Territory of Ladakh.
Two, it demonstrates India’s commitment to the region’s countries, particularly ASEAN. China’s illegal fishing has no direct impact on India, nor does it face any intrusion into its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) by Chinese fishing trawlers, at least not yet. However, China uses its massive fishing fleet not only to fish illegally in the territorial waters and EEZs of South East Asian countries, but also to assert its territorial claims.
Why the CDS Choice Pool Shouldn’t Have Been Expanded
In ThePrint, Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon wrote about the new amendment to the Army, Navy and Air Force Service Regulations to change the eligibility framework for the Chief of Defence Staff post. The earlier amendment of December 28th 2019, had restricted the eligibility to serving Chiefs of the three Services. Now, all serving three-star and retired three-star officers who wouldn’t reach 62 years of age on the date of appointment are eligible for the post of CDS.
Expressing his skepticism towards the move, Gen. Menon wrote:
Prudence would suggest that other things remaining equal, such experience is likely to be maximised in the Chiefs and to a limited extent in the Commanders-in-Chief. Unless of course, the selection is about finding a pliable person who can be a loyal follower instead of having displayed high levels of professional integrity and loyalty to the Constitution. If the political path adopted is weighted towards identifying ideological/personal loyalists, it could strike at the very roots of keeping the Indian Armed Forces apolitical in outlook. The expanded choice pool for CDS is clearly not a healthy sign. It could indeed pose a grave hazard not only in security terms but also for the foundations of a democratic India.
The hugely expanded pool could also ignite and unleash the demons of ambitions and consequent possibility of leveraging those ambitions by political leadership. There is also the enhanced prospects of dirty games and cut-throat competition to impress the political leadership. This can cause immense damage to the cultural and social fabric of the Armed Forces leadership. Apart from generating unhealthy internecine competition within an individual Service, there could be bad blood created at the inter-Service level.
Takshashila hosts a #BookLounge session with K.S Nair
On Friday, the Takshashila Institution hosted a #BookLounge discussion with K.S Nair on his latest book, December in Dacca-The Indian Armed Forces and the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. The session was moderated by Aditya Ramanathan, Fellow, The Takshashila Institution.
That’s it from us this week. We hope you stay safe.