Implications of the Delay in Appointing the Next CDS
Dear Reader,
With COVID-19 cases rising again, we hope you and your loved ones are safe and well. Since we last wrote to you, our work at Takshashila has included an assessment of the implications of the delay in appointing the next CDS, an analysis of India’s new semiconductor policy and discussions on India’s internet shutdowns.
What Does the Delay in Appointing the Next CDS Mean?
Following the tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), Gen. Bipin Rawat, there has been a delay in appointing the next CDS. Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon wrote an article in ThePrint reflecting on the consequences of the vacancy. He argued:
It would appear, by default, that none of the many hats worn by the CDS demands any sense of urgency to be filled by a permanent incumbent. Such an approach ignores the crucial advisory role of a CDS as also the operational role he plays as Permanent Chairperson of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (PC-CoSC). Moreover, considering the trajectory of geopolitical tensions that cloud India’s strategic landscape, the country’s defence modernisation is running very much behind schedule, and there is no time to lose. With the CDS being the central figure who could provide direction and set the pace of military reforms, the post should be left vacant only for the unavoidable process time needed for political selection. However, for operational reasons, there can be no justification for not appointing an officiating CDS.
Gen. Menon then identified a few possible candidates likely to fill the vacancy and assessed the likelihood of their appointment. Read the full article for more.
What India’s New Semiconductor Policy Gets Right
On 15th December, the Union Cabinet approved a new policy to develop India’s semiconductor sector. The programme would cost Rs 76000 crore over six years. In their article on News18.com, Pranay Kotasthane and Arjun Gargeyas identified five reasons to like the policy.
First, the policy focuses on the entire semiconductor value chain instead of just semiconductor fabrication. This is significant because India’s competitive advantage is in semiconductor design. The Rs. 76000 crore package will support 100 domestic semiconductor design companies, 15 compound semiconductors and semiconductor packaging units, two fabrication units and two display fabs.
Second, the policy lays down a 20-year roadmap for the semiconductor sector instead of being a one-off incentive scheme.
Third, the policy is a shot in the arm for domestic semiconductor design firms. It has a design-linked incentive scheme, which will provide domestic design firms with financial incentives to acquire costly software licenses and reduce IP acquisition costs.
Fourth, the policy will provide fiscal support of up to 50 per cent of the total project cost involved in the construction of fabs. This is vital because setting up a fabrication unit requires billions of dollars of recurring capital investment.
Finally, the policy also offers incentives for the assembly, testing and packaging stage of the value chain, which is likely to attract companies to the country.
Pranay and Arjun concluded the article by providing some important caveats.
Implications of China’s Nuclear Modernisation
China has undertaken a modernisation programme of its nuclear arsenal, which it had initiated in the 1990s and 2000s. China has constructed around 250-300 missile silos and tested new hypersonic missile systems in the past two years. In an article in Hindustan Times, Suyash Desai identified the implications of these developments. He argued:
China’s recent nuclear build-up could be to achieve the condition of mutual assured vulnerability with the US. This is a state where both sides are vulnerable to each other’s nuclear forces, no matter who strikes first. This also implies that China worries about the survivability of its nuclear arsenal from the US’ conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) weapons and the credibility of its capacity to retaliate – which could be undermined by the US’ improving missile defence systems. Thus Chinese nuclear strategists argue that constant and gradual nuclear modernisation would create the condition of credible nuclear deterrence in the US-China nuclear dyad.
Suyash then assessed China’s nuclear modernisation within the context of the Indo-Pacific, cautioning that it would have a cascading effect on the nuclear and conventional competition in the region, including India.
What’s Up with India’s Internet Shutdowns?
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Communications and Information Technology recently presented its report on the Suspension of Telecom Services/Internet and its impact relating to the Ministry of Communications (Department of Telecommunications).
On the December 14th episode of All Things Policy, Prateek Waghre, Sapni G K, and Rohan Seth discussed the findings, recommendations and what the report left unanswered.
Why You Should Take Our Post-Graduate Programme in Public Policy
The Post Graduate Programme (PGP) is a 48-week multi-disciplinary, specialised programme designed for students who wish to understand both the theoretical and empirical approach to public policy. It is also suitable for working professionals looking to explore a career in public policy while pursuing current occupations.
Here are some of the courses that you will study at the PGP:
The next cohort of PGP begins on 15th January 2022 and the last date to submit applications is 8th January 2022
A limited number of financial scholarships are available. You can send in your queries at pgp@takshashila.org.in
What We Have Been Reading
This week’s book is Backstage by Montek Singh Ahluwalia. Recommending it, Pranay Kotasthane said:
Backstage is a riveting account of the 1991 reforms. The book is full of interesting anecdotes. It is a must-read for aspiring policy analysts. Sample this sage advice from the author:
“Senior civil servants would resist listening to an economist if the economist was peddling specialised knowledge…. An approach that seemed to work particularly well was to first introduce an idea as a suggestion, explore its implications with a senior colleague, subsequently refer to the idea as one that had evolved jointly in the discussion, and finally include more and more people in that discussion and share credit for the idea. More often than not, the idea actually did evolve and got better refined through the different stages. Besides persuading my colleagues and seniors about the need for change, this approach seems to have broken down the barriers of my position vis-à-vis my IAS colleagues.”
That’s it from us this week. Take care and stay safe!