The Ruckus Around AUKUS

Dear Reader,

I hope you are doing well. Over the past week, our researchers have been studying and writing about a bunch of new developments. From exploring what AUKUS might mean for India to analysing China’s efforts to regulate algorithms, discussing the geopolitics of semiconductors and much more.

AUKUS: A Game of Musical Chairs

Aditya Pareek co-authored an article with professor Andrey Gubin of the Far Eastern Federal University, on the implications of AUKUS, the trilateral security pact between Australia, United States and United Kingdom. France was contracted by Australia to build a dozen units of a smaller conventional variant of its newest nuclear-propelled Barracuda class submarines. This programme is now set to be canceled and will be replaced by a class of fast attack nuclear submarines built with the help of the US and the UK. 

The authors argued that despite its outrage, France has no moral standing to criticise AUKUS:

Obviously, losing such a substantial contract is very unpleasant, but Paris should recall its deal with Russia for the Mistral-class amphibious assault ship. The two almost ready to be delivered ships (Vladivostok and Sevastopol) were transferred to Egypt after sanctions were imposed on Russia in the wake of Crimea being re-integrated with Russia.

Perhaps what goes around comes around in international relations and karma alike.

Further, the authors analysed how AUKUS might affect India;

Previously, the role now to be assigned to AUKUS was envisaged to be undertaken in part by the Quad. However, several factors including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s broader focus than just the military dimension perhaps made it unsuitable for the purpose. Some commentators have already noticed the absence of other important countries in the US-led anti-China bulwark – India and Japan – in this new AUKUS grouping. 

However, the resultant chaos around the exclusion of France, India and Japan is reminiscent of a game of geopolitical musical chairs – where at the drop of a hat rebalancing may occur and those in the fold may be ousted. This will inevitably bring chaos and uncertainty to the balance of power in the region.

Making Sense of China’s Algorithm Regulations

In an article in the Diplomat, Sapni GK and Mihir Mahajan scrutinised China’s new draft algorithm regulations. They argued that while data practices have been the subject of great regulatory scrutiny, regulation of algorithms has been a relatively new space. In this regard, China’s draft regulations address a gap but in the process serve to extend Chinese state control over internet-based services. They wrote:

On the whole, the draft provisions attempt to address genuine concerns with algorithmic recommendations and the power such algorithms hold over users. In the absence of regulatory oversight, it is possible that individual users will go down content rabbit holes (leading to problems such as addiction and disengagement.); suffer economic harm (through illegal price discrimination and self-preferencing/improper competition). Society as a whole can damaged by misinformation and harms to minors (gaming addiction, exposure to harmful content). The inclusion of specific articles that address many of these known issues is welcome.

However, the provisions require algorithmic recommendation service providers to “uphold mainstream value orientations,” “vigorously disseminate positive energy,” and “advance the use of algorithms in the direction of good.” This is indicative of a paternalistic and authoritarian state, which places the responsibility for promoting “mainstream values” on entities that use recommendation algorithms, to prevent any challenge to government control over every aspect of Chinese life.

Implications of China’s ‘Standards 2035’ Project

Arjun Gargeyas evaluated China’s increasing role in standard setting for critical technologies, as evidenced by its ‘Standards 2035’ project. The Chinese government argues that a revamp of the international technology governance framework mechanism is needed to break the existing hegemony of the West. But China’s attempt to become a technological powerhouse comes with significant challenges, since:

China now has the economic clout and the political will to influence the standard-setting process at the international stage. But the increasingly centralized and authoritarian regime of the CCP has created a highly restrictive technological environment. There have been unending restrictions placed on citizens’ activities on the internet and the use of certain technologies.

There doubt still lingers over whether a Chinese-supported technological governance framework would be accepted worldwide, especially in the West. There is also the question of whether China will change its stance on how its own state governs and regulates the use of certain technologies.

The Heady Cocktail of Military-Media Relations

Earlier this month, India’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, posed a question before a gathering of Delhi’s strategic affairs community. He asked them, rhetorically, whether China’s growing engagement with Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan would lead to the reimagining of the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ theory with the Chinese and Islamic civilisations joining against the Western world? The question was part of an intellectual discourse and not a policy statement but the media reported it as such, birthing a controversy during a sensitive phase in China-India relations.

In ThePrint, Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon wrote about civil-military-media relations against this backdrop. He argued that although General Rawat’s query was not a policy statement, to borrow a theory that stems from an American imagination and using it publicly club the Islamic civilisation as one entity with the Chinese is politically fraught in a world that the CDS himself described as being in “turmoil”. The CDS, he argued should avoid making public statements that could, in any manner, adversely impact India’s foreign relations. And the only way to minimise such occurrences is by keeping away from the media and public relations exercises.

Further, he wrote:

The CDS and all military leaders must eschew the projection of personality through the media. They are better felt or seen and not heard; their appearance in the media should ideally be restricted to some special or ceremonial occasions. The media appearances of Gen Bipin Rawat, both as COAS and CDS, have left an avoidable trail of faux pas and opinions that have generated needless controversies. The media, especially for India’s military, will remain a double-edged sword. The digital world is unwieldy, unforgiving and easily amenable to distorting reality. As a policy, let the media spokesperson, who are now part of most military structures, do the talking and try their best to navigate the media minefield.

The Geopolitics of Semiconductors

Semiconductors are at the heart of every technology that drives the information age, and thus they are a 'metacritical' technology. Prasanna Naidu and Pranay Kotasthane created a video explaining how semiconductors have become a geopolitical flashpoint, and why they are on the technology policy agenda of many countries and multilateral formations.

A Lawsuit of Epic Proportions

The Apple v Epic Games lawsuit recently culminated in a 185-page judgment that has implications for the future of in-app purchases on the App Store. While the 30% cut that Apple places on developers is going to stay, Apple is now not allowed to prohibit developers from including links, buttons, and calls to action in apps and metadata. In the September 21 episode of All Things Policy, Prateek Waghre spoke to Sapni GK and Rohan Seth to examined the fine print.

Evidence-Based Policy Making for COVID-19

I am pleased to introduce our brand new short credit course on evidence-based policy making for responding to COVID-19. The course, comprising four webinars over two weekends, will introduce participants to the various public policy aspects of managing recurring COVID-19 waves. Topics will include the role of the government, tackling misinformation, ethical decision-making during a pandemic, and the adoption of emerging technologies to fight the pandemic. This course is suitable for students, practitioners, and policy professionals.

The course will include activity-based sessions, wherein participants will be expected to work across teams to solve contemporary questions arising through the pandemic. Participants will be provided with frameworks and tools to analyse policy problems and recommend solutions. Participants will be graded on the basis of a final team presentation that will involve creating recommendations for tackling a particular problem that is expected to recur in potential future waves of COVID-19.

Programme begins: 23 October. Apply by 17 October.

Send your queries at gcbt@takshashila.org.in

What We Have Been Reading

The last book we recommended was Rethinking Chinese Politics. I hope you have been enjoying reading it. This week’s book, recommended by Apurva Kumar, is Liberalization, Hindu Nationalism and the State: A biography of Gujarat by Nikita Sud. Apurva says:

The book deals with the central idea of the puzzling co-existence of economic liberalism and political liberalism in the state of Gujarat. The author mentions several factors that led to this inexplicable co-existence. First, there was a race among the two national parties to broaden their support base. This race led to the parties catering to their own core support base with identity based issues. Secondly, the coalition between political parties and big money led to some economic advancement of the state at the same time.

While the book is a good starting point to understand the evolution of Gujarat’s politics, one has to read further to find whether the co-existence of economic liberalism and political liberalism is a feature or a bug.

Get reading!

That’s it from us this week. Take care and stay safe!

Regards,

Atish Padhy,

Assistant Manager, Digital Properties,

Takshashila Institution