The Future is Semiconductors, Son
You might not remember Walter Brooke as an actor, but in 1967, he spoke what is considered one of the most important, most prophetic words uttered on screen. In the opening scene of Mike Nichols’ all-time classic movie, The Graduate — where Benjamin Braddock (Dustin Hoffman) returns home to a hero’s welcome after graduating from college — everyone asks him what he is going to do with his life. He has no answers, of course, as many recent graduates do.
In comes Mr McGuire (played by Walter Brooke) who takes him aside to the swimming pool. “I just want to say one word to you. Just one word,” Mr McGuire tells Ben. “Yes, sir,” Ben replies. “Are you listening,” Mr McGuire says, worried for a moment that the young man may not be paying attention. “Yes, I am,” Ben reassures him. Mr McGuire then says, “Plastics… There's a great future in plastics. Think about it. Will you think about it?”
If Nichols made this movie in the early 2000s, the word could well have been semiconductors, the piece of hardware that has changed the world. No, quite literally, changed the world.
It’s nearing the end of 2023, and our dependence on semiconductors is the same as our reliance on plastics — never-ending and never-satiating. To utter a contemporary cliché, semiconductors are the centrepiece of modern-day geopolitics and foreign policy.
The Americans and the Chinese are playing an all-out battle over semiconductors, and India’s primary foreign policy discourse with the US is about exactly the same topic.
It is in this context that Takshashila Deputy Director Pranay Kotasthane and Takshashila alumnus Abhiram Manchi’s new book assumes great importance.
‘When the Chips Are Down: A Deep Dive into a Global Crisis’ releases on November 18, 2023, and is available for pre-order now on Amazon.
An introduction to the book says,
“The chip shortage during COVID-19 made governments take notice of this complex supply chain. The US began denying advanced semiconductors to Chinese companies. Worsening China-Taiwan relations further intensified the debate. By 2022, China, the US, India, the EU, and Japan had released plans worth billions of dollars for setting up new semiconductor facilities.
This book is a comprehensive overview of this “meta-critical” technology. How are semiconductors important from a geopolitical perspective? Why did the US and Taiwan become powerhouses in this domain while Russia and India fell behind? Is China's semiconductor sector a threat to the world? What are the future trends to watch out for? These are the questions that this book answers.”
In his praise for the book, Nandan Nilekani, chairman and co-founder of Infosys and founding chairman of UIDAI (Aadhaar), says,
“Pranay and Abhiram have put together an excellent framework to understand the past, present, and future of the geopolitics of semiconductors. The book explains why some countries have done relatively better than others and it has learnings for technologists, geopolitical analysts, and policymakers alike.”
Well, if Mr Nilekani loved the book, so would you. Pre-order it here.
The More You Learn About China
Last week, Manoj Kewalramani, Takshashila’s head of the Indo-Pacific Programme, captained a three-day workshop on China for the fellows of Takshashila’s unique Network for Advanced Study of China (NASC) programme, where they not only sat in on sessions with some leading experts on the subject but also presented their papers.
NASC aims to create high-quality scholarship and knowledge of the People’s Republic of China by nurturing new generations of analysts in academia, think tanks, media and industry. The aims of the programme are to train and nurture a cross-disciplinary community of outstanding scholars over a period of three years and create a body of knowledge that will inform policy, strategy, economics, technology and society.
It has researchers from universities, research institutes, media, government services and industry, who are enthusiastic about undertaking fresh research on China. NASC fellows undertake research in one or more of the following areas: inner-party politics & governance, economy, defence, geopolitics, environment, education, technology, society, and urbanisation.
This cohort of NASC will submit their final papers in January 2024, and the announcement of the top five papers will be made a couple of months later.
For more information on NASC, head to this page.
Fake News Will Damage Democracy Forever
In her 2018 book ‘Fascism: A Warning’, former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright wrote these remarkably oracular words:
“Today, democracy is being weakened by lies that come in waves and pound our senses the way a beach is assaulted by the surf. Leaders who play by the rules are having trouble staying ahead of a relentless news cycle and must devote too much effort trying to disprove stories that seem to come out of nowhere and have been invented solely to do them in.
All this has consequences. Small "d" democrats riding to power on the promise of change often begin to lose popularity the day they take office. Globalization, which is not an ideological choice but a fact of life, has become for many an evil to be fought at all costs. Capitalism is considered a four-letter word by an increasing number of people who--if not for its fruits--would be without food, shelter, clothing, and smartphones. In a rising number of countries, citizens profess a lack of faith in every public institution and the official data they produce.”
Why is understanding disinformation important? In his latest column for The Free Press Journal, Takshashila’s Sachin Kalbag argues that fake news will not only weaken the foundations of our Republic, but also damage our democracy forever.
He writes:
“In 2024, when several countries around the world — including India and the US — are scheduled to go to the polls, disinformation and fake news generated by artificial intelligence (AI) software will bring democratic systems to their knees. The damage is going to be so severe that, in the worst-case scenario, we will have reached a point of no return. Even if we somehow manage to halt the fake news juggernaut (unlikely, but let’s say we do), it will take decades to go back to any kind of normalcy.”
While disinformation and fake news using AI tools have been around for a while, the next generation of software will make this a mass-market phenomenon, giving the power to spread lies to each and every individual.
“The next phase of disinformation and fake news will involve mass creation of such content. We have a tool just for that. A few months ago, a new AI-based video editing software entered the mass market. It has the capability of not only putting a voice over your video in eight languages, but it can also lip-sync any text to almost 100 per cent accuracy. It’s called HeyGen, and it has exploded into global consciousness within weeks. A HeyGen not just sounds like you, it accurately mimics you so that it also looks like you. One language in its database is Hindi.”
What, therefore, does it mean for India and other democracies? Will it take years (or, as Sachin puts it, decades) for normalcy to return? Read his column here.
Israel, Palestine, Hamas… and Indian Interests
The predominant narrative in several Indian media outlets — and therefore perhaps the dominant thought narrative in Indian society — is that the Palestinian people and Hamas are one and the same. There could be extenuating reasons for this narrative-building in the Indian media, but for foreign policy wonks, there is no ambiguity — Hamas is not Palestine and Palestine is not Hamas.
We must, Yusuf Unjhawala argues in his op-ed for Deccan Herald, look at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s approach towards Israel and Palestine with that lens as far as the current conflict is concerned.
Yusuf writes:
“There is no evidence of change in India’s position on Palestine. It has made a distinction between Hamas and the Palestinian people. It has conveyed clarity on one of its core security issues of terrorism. Also, it points to Delhi’s strategic assessment of the fallout of the conflict. As a result, India has taken a firm and unambiguous stand on terrorism. India rightly expressed solidarity with Israel in its gravest moment in recent history.”
He adds:
“Modi called Abbas to condole the deaths in the Gaza hospital explosion and reaffirmed India’s “principled position” on the Israel-Palestine issue. He also committed to providing humanitarian assistance, the first lot of which has already been delivered. This reaffirmed India’s recognition of the Palestine Authority as the sole representative of the Palestinians. Modi visited Ramallah in the PA-ruled West Bank in 2018, the first Indian Prime Minister to do so. India has not recognised Hamas although it has governed Gaza since 2006.”
You can read Yusuf’s piece here.
On the same topic, Takshashila’s Aditya Ramanathan, Bharat Sharma and Kingshuk Saha sat together for this wonderful episode of All Things Policy that looks in-depth into India’s interests and its response to the ongoing crisis.
Why India Should Take Note of China’s Air Force Expansion
Using high-resolution satellite images, Dr. Nithiyanandam, Head of the Geospatial Research Programme at the Takshashila Institution, analysed three operational dual-purpose airports and two airbases under construction in Central Tibet, namely, Shigatse Peace Airport, Lhasa Gonggar Airport, Nyinghchi Manling Airbase, Shigtase Tingri Airbase, and Damxung Airbase
He says, “China's rapid construction pace and utilisation of cutting-edge technology indicate its commitment to maintaining a long-term presence in the region.” Moreover, they are located close to the Indian borders.
In this fascinating episode of All Things Policy, Shrikrishna Upadhyaya quizzes Nithiyanandam on China’s PLA Air Force’s capabilities in the region, construction of underground facilities, strategic location of the airbases, and lessons for India.
Also, don’t forget to subscribe to the Takshashila Geospatial Bulletin.
A New Course On Analysing State Budgets
On our OpenTakshashila platform, you will find a new course on state budgets, a subject that is ever more relevant today. Did you know, for instance, that state government expenditure is more than our Central spending? Or that state governments employ more people than the national government by an order of magnitude?
You can take this important course here.
And Here’s The Video You Missed!
Takshashila Institution’s Deputy Director Pranay Kotasthane joined Devashish Dhar in an exciting policy jugalbandi at the Bangalore International Centre on October 4. The video is out now.
Devashish and Pranay were cohort mates at Takshashila before building on their policy education for policy practice. Devashish is a former Public Policy Specialist at NITI Aayog. He is a Mason Fellow from the Harvard Kennedy School and Li Ka Shing Scholar from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore. He is also a Raisina Fellow and an IVLP Fellow.
You can also watch the captivating conversation here.
That’s all from us this week. Take care!