The China–India–Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma
Dear Reader,
We hope you are doing well. In this edition of the Dispatch, we bring to you our analysis of the China-India-Pakistan nuclear trilemma, on women’s labour force participation in India, reforming water sharing between states in India, the US-China tech war, and opening of the 20th Party Congress in China. Also, find out why a super app which promises to deliver anything and everything is bad for freedoms and democracy.
The China–India–Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma
Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon has published an article titled ‘The China–India–Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma and Accidental War’ in the open-access Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament. He explores the connectedness of the territorial disputes and nuclear overhang between the India-Pakistan and India-China dyads to argue that the danger of nuclear war in both dyads is the potential inability to control the escalation of conflicts that may have small beginnings but can spin out of control.
Since the China–India–Pakistan nuclear trilemma exists as a subsystem in the larger global geopolitical ambience, he calls for using global public imagination for building political consensus around nuclear weapons much like climate change and a global no-first-use treaty which can check the dangers of an accidental nuclear war.
Women’s Labour Force Participation in India
One of the most stressful concerns in the Indian economy today is the decreasing women’s labour force participation rate in the last two decades. Our latest research output, Takshasila Discussion Document - Women’s Labour Force Participation in India by Sudisha Mishra and Sridhar Krishna digs into the reasons behind this decline and suggests policy measures to overcome the challenge.
India needs a social, economic and financial revolution for emancipating women from the shackles of societal norms and legal prohibitions and encouraging them to actively participate in the workforce. Some of the recommendations from the discussion document pertain to the prioritisation of data collection regarding paid and unpaid work, childcare facilities outside the home environment, flexible work policies, vocational training programmes and improving access to technology for women.
Reform Inter-State Water Sharing before Water Trading
Recent media reports suggest that NITI Aayog is working on a proposal for water trading on the bourses in India. In Takshashila Issue Brief - Reform Inter-State Water Sharing before Water Trading, we argue that it is worthwhile to consider bulk-water entitlements as a first step before introducing full-fledged water trading akin to a securities market. A proto-water trading system in terms of bulk entitlements with monetary incentives can potentially be implemented for water sharing between states which seek water from the same resource, usually a river.
A state may draw water up to its basic entitlement free of charge. Drawing water from the overdraw entitlement shall be charged. The super overdraw facility is available via competitive bidding. States drawing less than basic entitlement will receive a compensation benefit.
US Sanctions on China’s Semiconductors Industry
On October 6th, the US’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) announced the much-anticipated unilateral controls by the US on China’s semiconductor industry. In the last edition of Technopolitik, the newsletter from Takshashila’s High Tech Geopolitics Programme, Pranay Kotasthane analysed the implications of this move on China’s domestic industry. Based on the Siliconpolitik Framework, he argues that China's options are limited: industrial espionage targeted poaching, domestic "reinventing the wheel", or a technological breakthrough that allows it to get around the restrictions.
Also, listen to today’s All Things Policy episode in which Pranay Kotasthane is in conversation with Pranav Satyanath on the escalation of the US-China tech war:
All About Xi's 20th Party Congress Speech
The much-awaited 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress has opened in Beijing. For the benefit of all China watchers and enthusiasts, Manoj Kewalramani has run through Xi Jinping’s opening speech and highlighted the important bits in the latest edition of his newsletter Tracking People’s Daily.
Everything App is a Nightmare for Human Freedoms
Many technological entrepreneurs today dream of creating an ‘everything app’, a smartphone application that will deliver everything to everyone. The latest to enter the fray is Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. Drawing from the Chinese experience with WeChat, in his column for the LiveMint, Nitin Pai writes that we should be wary of such super apps:
It is practically impossible for a person in China to opt out of WeChat. The user is socially locked into a ‘private’ company for performing any or all socio-economic functions. Tencent and the Chinese Communist Party thus have massive power and influence over hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens. The company behind an everything app will have a greater hold over citizens minds, choices and actions than religious, social and political leaders ever did. No sovereign state, let alone a liberal democracy, should accept such an outcome.
It does not matter if everything apps are foreign or indigenous. To the extent that they dominate markets and have influence, they are a threat to individual freedom and state sovereignty. Instead of waiting until it is too late, public policy must prevent apps from acquiring socio-economic dominance in the first place.
Reminder | Sign Up for the Takshashila-Hudson Panel Discussion on 75 Years of India-US Partnership
The Takshashila Institution and the Hudson Institute are organising an online panel discussion to mark the 75th anniversary of India-US diplomatic relations. The session will bring together experts from India and the US to discuss the relationship’s trajectory and more importantly, how it should be shaped in the future.
That’s all from us this week. Take care!