Greetings! In this edition of Takshashila Dispatch, we discuss a range of issues, from delimitation and the role of opposition, to India's game plan in oil geopolitics and regional tensions in the South China Sea.
But before delving into the same, we encourage you to participate in our latest Survey, The 'China Challenge' Survey.
The Survey is prepared by the Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy. This is the first iteration of an intended periodic Survey to assess public opinion on India-China relations.
Filling out the Survey should not take more than 5 minutes of your time. Please only fill the same out only once. Responses shall be accepted till Friday, 2 August 2024, 11:59 PM IST.
Please note that any and all information provided through the Survey will be completely confidential. Please also note that by submitting your responses, you are authorising Takshashila Institution to use the information provided for research, analyses and/ or educational purposes.
In case of any queries, please reach out to us via contact@takshashila.org.in, or using the comments space below the text of this edition.
With that, we thank you for your time in filling the Survey out, and we wish you, happy reading!
First Parliament Session a Sign of Things to Come
A common understanding of the role of the opposition in a democracy is that its purpose is to minimise the damage a ruling party inflicts on the nation by the end of its term. The current opposition in the Lok Sabha, led by an aggressive Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party, seems to have taken this aphorism rather too seriously. If the first week of Parliament following a somewhat landmark election is anything to go by, the next five years are going to be, for lack of a better word, tumultuous.
In their illuminating op-ed for the Times of India, Takshashila’s Shrikrishna Upadhyaya and Saurabh Todi offer this:
“Though it is early days, a stormy inaugural session of the 18th Lok Sabha is belying expectations that national politics has re-entered a coalition phase that will bring consensus-building, effective floor management, and backroom parleys back to Parliament. But it is very important that the parliamentary forum be once again tilted towards its intended purpose — democratic deliberation.”
It is a paragraph our elected lawmakers must read every single day before entering the hallowed portals of Parliament.
They go on to provide a prescription for the entire term, one that could help both sides address some of the most important legislative and administrative issues that Parliament will have to grapple with in the next five years: issues such as delimitation, simultaneous polls, women’s reservation, division by votes, research teams for MPs, etc.
They write on delimitation:
“As per constitutional provisions, delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies is to be carried out on the basis of the first census conducted after 2026. Today, on average, an MP from Uttar Pradesh caters to about 3mn citizens, compared to 1.8mn by an MP from Tamil Nadu. Given the disparity in population growth between northern and southern states since the 1971 census, as per which delimitation is currently frozen, delimitation is set to exert pressure on NDA govt.”
Better still, read the full piece here, and share it with your social groups.
Is India Ready to go Full EV by 2034? Pssst… No!
Last fortnight, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari made a startling announcement: the Union Government plans to eliminate petrol and diesel vehicles by 2034, replacing them primarily with electric vehicles (EVs). Several questions arise: Is this a bold move? Will this actually reduce India’s carbon emissions and contribute to achieving our climate goals? Will this be a solution, or will it lead to further unintended consequences that so many good-intentioned policy moves face?
In a piece for NDTV, Arindam Goswami writes:
“The hidden carbon footprint of EVs, the inadequacy of our renewable energy infrastructure, the strain on our power grid and the economic and geopolitical ramifications, all paint a grim picture of a policy that could backfire disastrously.”
Well, here’s a wake-up call if we ever needed one:
“The electricity required to charge EVs often comes from coal-based power plants, which are major carbon emitters. As per an analysis, which used the Tata Nexon as a benchmark (assuming an 80% charging efficiency, our current energy mix, 33% efficiency of a coal power plant, and approximately 15% transmission loss on the grid), charging the 40.5 kWh battery of the Nexon EV Max would require approximately 26.7 kg of coal. This is 2.5 times the petrol or diesel needed for the same distance.”
Arindam further writes:
“While India has made significant progress in renewable energy, with solar and wind contributing 19% and 10% respectively to the total installed capacity, their intermittent nature means they cannot reliably meet the demand for EV charging, which often occurs overnight. As a result, we will likely need to rely more on coal-based power, which currently generates about 76% of our electricity. Transitioning to an all-EV future by 2034 will require doubling our power generation capacity. However, the government's current plan is to add 517 GW by 2032, which seems unlikely. Over the past nine years, we've only added 139.62 GW. Additionally, our power grid, which already struggles to meet current demands, will need extensive upgrades. This includes doubling the number of transformers, feeders, and transmission lines to prevent frequent power cuts.”
There are more points that policymakers must take note of. Read this full column here.
Explore Our Expert Capsule Course on Space Power
The ability to use space for commercial, scientific and military purposes is a vital determinant of national power. Recent years have seen the rise of a global commercial space sector, growing lunar ambitions, and plans for interplanetary exploration. However, these developments have coincided with increasing military dependence on satellites, the development of ‘counterspace’ capabilities, and growing concerns about space governance.
Takshashila’s short expert capsule course provides an introduction to emerging issues related to space and how those could shape India’s interests, its opportunities, and the choices it makes. The course will cover the government and commercial space sectors, strategic affairs, and international governance.
The course is primarily designed to be useful for government officials, members of the armed forces, space entrepreneurs, lawyers, academics, policy professionals, as well as other individuals interested in outer space affairs.
Our faculty includes Aditya Ramanathan, Ashok G.V., Narayan Prasad, and Dr Y Nithiyanandanam.
For more details on how to apply, head here.
Two Events on China You Should Not Miss
In the week gone by, there were two interesting discussions on China, one based on an interesting paper authored by Takshashila’s Amit Kumar and other one by young scholars analysing China’s politics, economy and the military, organised by StratNewsGlobal. Two of the participants in the latter were Takshashila scholars — Anushka Saxena and Amit Kumar. Watch the thought-provoking discussion here.
The first event was based on the paper by Amit Kumar comparing India and China’s consumption patterns. You can watch the video here.
Fishing For Power in the South China Sea
Though the South China Sea makes up only 8.6% of the Indian Ocean’s surface, it is home to over 22% of known fish species, comprising over a tenth of the global fishing population. But fishery is only one aspect of the lucrative South China Sea. With its large reserves of oil and gas and its role as a major shipping lane, carrying one-third of global shipping, the South China Sea has long been regarded by regional and global actors as an area of both great economic and strategic importance. This has led to frequent disputes between claimant states in the Sea. China, with its nine-dash line, lays claim to over 90% of the Sea; Vietnam and the Philippines each claim islands in the region; and both Brunei and Malaysia claim maritime territory in their exclusive economic zones.
Ananya Venkateswaran, who is interning at Takshashila, writes:
“A rising demand for seafood, declining fish stocks in traditional grounds, and warming temperatures were the first sparks for a South China Sea fishing crisis, beginning in the early 2000s, as more and more fishermen ventured into disputed territories. Though this increasing competition did quickly cause a “tragedy of the commons”-eque overfishing problem, the real “crisis” over fishery in the South China sea only grew because of existing geopolitical tensions.”
Her full piece examines not just the fishery aspect, it also looks at how conflict in the South China Sea has provided India with a unique opportunity to leverage its regional influence to further its own agenda.
Read her blog post here.
Why Putin’s North Korea Visit is Making China Uneasy
For over two years, the West has attempted to isolate Russia economically and diplomatically in response to its invasion of Ukraine. One aspect of this effort has been to limit Russian President Vladimir Putin’s international manoeuvrability. In this context, Putin’s recent visits to North Korea and Vietnam were an attempt to open new avenues of support. The outcomes, however, are indicative of a paradigm shift in Southeast Asia, which is evidently generating unease across the West and in China.
Manoj Kewalramani and Aadit Pareek write in the First Post:
“Following his meeting with Kim, the Russian leader said that their ties were now at a “new level.” Kim, meanwhile, termed the visit a “watershed moment.” Putin argued that the new agreement between the two sides was defensive in nature and included a promise of “mutual assistance”, if either side were attacked. This is reminiscent of the two countries’ 1961 Cold War-era mutual defence agreement, signalling Kim now has an official pact with a powerful ally, who happens to be the West’s foremost adversary, and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. All of this is likely to further fuel Western concerns about Pyongyang providing arms to Russia for its war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian technical expertise for its weapons program. Both countries have denied that such arms sales have taken place.”
They offer a detailed thesis on the thinking in Beijing over the important visit, and how it is likely to impact the region. Read the full piece here.
Oil Market Dynamics are an Opportunity for India
The Global oil market has been roiled over the last several years. The demand shock during COVID-19, the gradually evolving demand dynamics due to the Electric Vehicle (EV) transition, the disruption of tanker logistics following the Israel-Hamas war and economic sanctions against Russia, and the supply response following these events have upended international oil prices, trade flows and investments. Emerging clean energy technologies and more wide-spread efficiency policies and techniques are together resulting in slower oil demand growth.
In his latest piece for Mint, Takshashila co-founder Narayan Ramachandran writes:
“The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along with Russia, together called the OPEC+ countries, have kept supply tight, partly contributing to the high price of oil since 2022. These soaring prices have provided “windfall” profit to many companies that are in the business of pumping oil. Companies have followed a strategy of returning some of that money to shareholders through buybacks and dividends but also reinvesting a portion in increasing capacity.”
How does this give India an opportunity? Read Narayan’s prescription here.
Quiz: How Many Commercial Satellite Launches in 2024?
The answer is zero. There are two main reasons for the fall in demand for launch services. Firstly, there is a lack of satellite payloads from traditional customers - ISRO and the government, who were crucial in sustaining the launch market. Secondly, there haven’t been many launches for satellite constellations in India.
In his Issue Brief for Takshashila, Ashwin Prasad places the microscope on why this is the case and whether there are solutions to this peculiar conundrum.
Read his quick piece here.
Our Favourite Podcast of the Week
Ever wondered how automation will change the world? Maybe you puzzle over what India could do to ease traffic congestion or how China's aircraft carriers will transform Indian Ocean geopolitics. All Things Policy, a daily podcast by the Takshashila Institution, brings you all the answers. Every weekday, our researchers break down complex economic and geopolitical ideas through the lens of current events. For everyone from the busy executive to the curious student, All Things Policy is all you'll need to understand the world (and appreciate your breakfast) better. Listen to our pick of the week on China’s new energy landscape.
Takshashila At Carnegie’s Security Studies Dialogue
Takshashila’s Amit Kumar was in New Delhi in late June to attend the Carnegie Endowment’s Security Studies Dialogue at the Indian International Centre. The event drew participants from the MEA, MOD, NSCS, the Armed Forces, and the industry.
Amit says he really liked the set-up—a roundtable format with no stage or podium. The first session was titled “India's Foreign and Security Policy—Next Five Years.” Amit recounted, “One key point of discussion that emerged from this session was whether deepening strategic rivalries between several countries across the world creates challenges for India or offers more choices for India.”
The second and third sessions were China-focused. The objective was to hear from young and emerging scholars, followed by interventions by experts. The two panels had three researchers each, including Amit, who was on the panel titled Domestic Drivers of Global China. He spoke on the Chinese economy, the implications of its slowdown, and how the party-state has responded to the challenges, including the structural problem with the consumption-driven approach to economic growth.