Dear Reader,
We hope you and your loved ones are well. In this edition, we assess what the Ukraine-Russia war means for the world order, make the case for India-Taiwan collaboration on semiconductors, and reflect on the need for a comprehensive sex education curriculum for India.
What the Ukraine-Russia War Means for the World Order
Using our framework of geopolitical and geoeconomic trends, we have assessed what the Ukraine-Russia war means for the world order.
In our book India’s Marathon, we imagined 20 new world order scenarios at the intersection of key geopolitical and geoeconomic trends. This framework serves as a useful anchor. Its intent is not to predict the future but to imagine the various possibilities.
Using this framework, we had earlier assessed that the US+ and China+ are in a New Cold War relationship on the geopolitical front. Meanwhile, the geoeconomic order continues to be Secular Stagnation, characterized by low growth.
The Ukraine-Russia war is likely to sharpen the New Cold War as it provides a common cause for the US+ countries, making Russia more dependent on China.
India-Taiwan Semiconductor Collaboration
Arjun Gargeyas and Pranay Kotasthane made the case for India-Taiwan collaboration on semiconductors in the Taiwan Asia Exchange Foundation’s new policy report, Taiwan and India: Strategizing the Relations.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical turmoil have made diversification of the semiconductor supply chain an urgent matter. India and Taiwan have complementary strengths in the semiconductor supply chain and are thus well-suited for a collaboration.
In 2021, Taiwan’s two prominent contract foundry companies, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and the United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), jointly accounted for over 60% of the total global semiconductor manufacturing revenue.
India, over the years, has attracted major semiconductor firms to set up their R&D centres. Of the ten largest fabless semiconductor companies by revenue in 2019, as many as seven have design houses in India (including the Taiwanese firm MediaTek). With a vast pool of skilled human talent, a world-class semiconductor design services industry has also emerged. India also has expertise in the downstream assembly of electronic components, with top Taiwanese contract manufacturers such as Wistron and Foxconn and South Korea’s Samsung setting up bases in India.
A resilient semiconductor supply chain will benefit not just India and Taiwan but the world at large.
India’s Neutrality on the Ukraine-Russia War
India abstained from voting in the United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In his weekly column in ThePrint, Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon argues that India is justified in its neutrality. He writes:
In terms of grand strategy, India’s interests are better served if it does not get involved in what are essentially the fights between various nations. India ought not to view the contemporary global churn as an ideological confrontation between liberalism and authoritarianism.
The worsening of US-Russian relations and the growing proximity between Russia and China has a major impact on India’s external strategy. While calls for joining or moving closer to the US-led bloc are probably gaining traction in India’s foreign policy discourse, there is the need for caution to go down that path.
The caution emerges from the first principle of international relations that there are no permanent friends nor enemies. This principle, if embraced, supports the notion that India’s preference for strategic partnerships is better suited than getting into any alliance relationship. In an alliance, a nation is committed to fight others’ battles and weakens its ability to maintain strategic autonomy.
On the other hand, the cornerstone of a strategic partnership is based on context. Therefore, India can team up with China on climate change, with the US on nuclear proliferation, and remain neutral on Ukraine. India’s multi-alignments as a strategy involving tightrope walking can perhaps be better described as one of being a bachelor/spinster leading a politically promiscuous existence.
Sex Education in India
In today’s globalized world, where we are connected through technology and where information travels very fast, addressing intimacy, sexual health, and wellness has become increasingly crucial. Conservative beliefs on sex are becoming obsolete day by day, especially in India, where the teenage population is expanding, and attitudes about sex are changing due to the impact of media.
On the 3rd March episode of All Things Policy, Priyal Lyncia D’almeida and Mahek Nankani discuss the problems associated with the current sex education system and the need for a comprehensive sex education curriculum for India.
#BookLounge: The Art of Bitfulness
We are pleased to invite you to a #BookLounge webinar featuring The Art of Bitfulness. The authors, Nandan Nilekani and Tanuj Bhojwani, will be in conversation with Nitin Pai.
About the Book
In this short, practical book, Nandan Nilekani and Tanuj Bhojwani describe a framework to tune out the overwhelming noise of the internet. They empower you with tools to take back your time, attention and privacy from those who want to capture and sell it. They reveal their personal systems and how they stay on top of a constant flow of information.
Date & Time
Thursday, March 10 at 5 PM IST
What We Have Been Reading
This week’s book is Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War by Dr Tanvi Madan. Recommending it, Manoj Kewalramani says:
The rise of China, the emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a zone of strategic contestation and now the revival of the geopolitical West amid the Russian war in Ukraine present difficult propositions for the India-US relationship. In such circumstances, having a strong sense of history is crucial to understanding the drivers of policy continuity and change.
The Fateful Triangle is an excellent place to start for those interested in the evolution of the India-US-China dynamic. The book, which draws on archival materials, offers a nuanced and insightful assessment of the impact of US and Indian policies and perceptions of China on the bilateral relationship between Washington and New Delhi.
That’s it from us this week. Take care and stay safe.