How Indians View the World
Dear Reader,
We hope you and your loved ones are well. In this edition, we use findings from India’s Global Outlook Survey to assess India’s reaction to the Ukraine-Russia crisis, reflect on how India can reduce its arms dependence on Russia, and investigate the implications of female underrepresentation in health data.
India’s Global Outlook Survey
A few days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we published the findings of India’s Global Outlook Survey 2022. In previous editions of Dispatch, we have focussed extensively on the war, providing our analysis of its fallout from geopolitical and geoeconomic perspectives. As India attempts to walk a diplomatic tightrope by abstaining from voting on several UN resolutions condemning Russia’s actions, it is helpful to understand how India’s strategic affairs community, policymakers & the general population view the world and India’s role in it.
The survey does just that. It was conducted through online polling in English between August and October 2021. It consisted of 26 questions, some of which required the participants to rank choices in order of priority.
Some key findings are:
1) A majority of respondents believe that a slowing economy is India’s primary strategic challenge.
2) India’s continuing border crisis with China and the threat of a two-front war strongly resonates in the respondents’ views on security.
3) When it comes to US-China relations, most respondents believe that India needs to work much more closely with middle powers to manage the fallout of the increasing competition between Washington and Beijing.
4) Although the term “non-alignment” has been phased out of the Indian foreign policy discourse over the years, it continues to hold sway, especially among one-third of the strategic affairs experts and one-fourth of the general population respondents.
5) With regards to Russia, diversifying the economic relationship beyond defence ties is the biggest concern for the general population, with 44 per cent of them believing India should focus on it. The expert community believes that the focus of the India-Russia relationship should be on a deeper engagement to balance China over the next decade.
Reducing India’s Arms Dependence on Russia
India is the largest importer of Russian arms. Western sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine could jeopardise India’s supply of spares for Russian equipment. In an article in ThePrint, Aditya Pareek and Pranav Satyanath outline how India can acquire spares despite the sanctions. They write:
To mitigate the looming shortage of spares from Russia, India has at its disposal two major pathways. The first of these is fairly easy: look for suppliers in former-Soviet states or in countries that have experience in retrofitting Soviet and Russian equipment with their own technologies. For example, Poland is among the best-known countries for upgrading its fleet of T-72 tanks with its very own upgrades package.
This solution, however, does not apply in all cases. Acquiring spares for Russian aircraft for the relatively newer platforms like the MiG-29 and the Sukhoi-30 MKI will be much more difficult. While it is true that India builds Russian fighters such as the Sukhoi-30 MKI under licence, it still depends on Russian suppliers for critical components, which often leads to spares being in short-supply.
The second solution, therefore, is to manufacture these components indigenously and innovate incrementally to improve existing capabilities. Iran’s pathway to maintain the air-worthiness of its F-14 fleet offers useful lessons. Of course, choosing to manufacture equipment for Russian weapons will certainly violate contractual agreements and infringe intellectual property. If, however, Russia is unable to maintain its obligations in the near future, the Ministry of Defence will either have to witness a slow decay of India’s Russian-origin military equipment or manufacture spares indigenously under such extraordinary circumstances.
Female Underrepresentation in Health Data
Two years into the pandemic, the importance of timely data in improving public health and tailoring emergency interventions cannot be overstated. But how accurate is this data? How often do datasets reflect societal inequities through the underrepresentation of women and religious, racial and sexual minorities? In an article in News18, Mahek Nankani analyses the underreporting of COVID-19 among women globally. Using a recent study by Yeva Aleksanyan and Jason P. Weinman titled, “Women, Men and COVID-19”, Mahek underlines how data collected in studies and medical trials are typically about men’s experience. On the implications of this disparity, Mahek writes:
This “gender data gap” in reporting has a knock-on effect on women’s health outcomes. This has ramifications for future generations’ health as well as the health of the entire family. Without data, no results can be declared about how a particular disease affects men and women differently. For instance, most information on symptoms and treatments of heart attack available in the public domain represents men. Women, when researched, have shown different symptoms.
In order to bring about transformative policies that improve the health of the entire population, data division, which is done from a gender perspective, becomes important. More importantly, it helps in creating an understanding of societal norms, expectations and roles of women and men that affect their health differently. Underreporting inevitably leads to failure in sex-disaggregation of health data.
Evacuating Indian Students from Ukraine
Indian officials and diplomats have been doing a commendable job in evacuating Indians from conflict areas inside Ukraine. Given India's large and increasing diaspora, and the world disorder we find ourselves in, the need for evacuation from conflict zones is likely to increase. India needs to be better prepared. In a new research note on Takshashila Unredacted, Pranay Kotasthane surveys our existing research work to provide recommendations on how India can be better prepared for evacuations. Some of these include:
Creation of an Overseas Crisis Management Group (OCMG) under the NSA which will be responsible for synchronisation and control of evacuation operations at the apex level. It will coordinate with the military, bureaucracy, civil aviation, railways, and diplomatic missions.
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the OCMG must have databases of logistics and transportation companies at foreign locations for ready use by Indian Missions abroad.
With Air India no longer a government company, it would be good for the government to include an emergency clause in carrier licensing now for all the private players.
Conflict and Peace in India’s Northeast
Since independence, a series of rebellions and insurgencies have marked developments in India’s northeast. What’s been driving these movements, and why has restoring peace been so difficult? In the March 10 episode of All Things Policy, Manoj Kewalramani discusses these questions with author Sudeep Chakravarti. They discuss his new book, The Eastern Gate: War and Peace in Nagaland, Manipur and India’s Far East.
What We Have Been Reading
This week’s book is Lords of the Deccan: Southern India from the Chalukyas to the Cholas by Anirudh Kanisetti. Recommending it, Aditya Ramanathan says:
The early mediaeval Deccan is a dark spot in India’s popular historical imagination. It possesses neither the wealth of sources that illuminate later periods nor the political potency that fuels heated online debates. Until now, readers wanting to learn about this period had little choice but to turn to Nilakanta Sastri’s impressive but dated A History of South India, first published in 1955. This is no longer the case, thanks to Anirudh Kanisetti’s game-changing debut volume, Lords of the Deccan.
In Lords of the Deccan, Kanisetti rescues two fascinating polities, the Chalukyas and the Rashtrakutas, from undeserved obscurity and tells their story in an absorbing and briskly paced narrative history that spans half a millennium from the sixth century ACE to the eleventh century ACE. He makes clever use of primary sources and archaeological evidence to recreate court politics, military campaigns, and staggering architectural endeavours. Kanisetti also never loses sight of deeper thematic issues, whether they be the nature of political authority, the role of religion in society, or the persistent rhythms of Indian Ocean trade.
Lords of the Deccan will appeal to a wide audience beyond just history buffs. If you’re interested in how Indian rulers like to portray themselves, how strategic decisions can lead to unanticipated consequences, or if you simply enjoy well-crafted narrative nonfiction, Lords of the Deccan may be the book for you.