Happy New Year | Forecasting 2023
Dear Reader,
Wish you a very happy new year!
In this edition, we wrap up the last week of 2022 as we look forward to 2023. We cover our work on how India must counter Chinese military aggression, civilian-military relations in India, Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, pitfalls of a one nation, one charger policy for India, and a podcast on Sundeep Waslekar’s book ‘A World Without War: The History, Politics and Resolution of Conflict’.
Special Episode of All Things Policy: Forecasting 2023
Making precise predictions is tough. But what's even tougher is to question the assumptions that form the basis of your predictions. So in the first episode of All Things Policy for 2023, Pranay Kotasthane gets Takshashila team members to make some predictions for the year. We will review how these predictions play out at the end of 2023.
Listen and let us know your thoughts:
India’s Options against Chinese Military Aggression
In the latest Takshashila Issue Brief - India’s Options against Chinese Military Aggression, we discuss the reasons behind the pattern of border intrusions by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) along the boundary with India and India’s options to ward off the Chinese threat:
Firstly, whenever the PLA intrudes on our borders or opens up a new front, India must not look for mutual de-escalation immediately. This is often interpreted as a sign of buckling under Chinese military pressure. Instead, India must look to deploy its Army and Air Force in a manner that signals that it is ready for longer and drawn-out tensions along the LAC.
Secondly, while the Indian Army has fought back Chinese intruders during these clashes, India needs to identify and invest in more aggressive and asymmetric countermeasures to PLA’s actions. The how and when of retaliation is best left to the planners in the Indian military establishment.
Finally, the priorities of the Indian national security establishment have remained focused on the land boundaries with Pakistan and China, its foremost adversaries. While India needs secure borders, it is also equally important to project power in the maritime domain, specifically the Indo-Pacific region. This will not only bolster India’s maritime security but also act as a strategic counter to China’s naval expansion.”
India’s Civil-Military Fusion
In democracies like India, the military falls under the control of the civilian government but it is also necessary that there is a sustained dialogue between the political and military leadership before deploying force. In his weekly column for The Print, Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon writes on how India’s military leadership must maintain its identity:
To ward off what is an evident but avoidable trend in civil-military relations, India’s military leadership has to be conscious of the political machinations that are apparently underway. They have to be conscious that the target of the politicians is military identity. An identity that is signified in the uniform and values integrity as its essence.
Admittedly, they have no power to prevent political moves except to maintain their professional integrity as experts in the application of violence. Such expertise, due to advances in technology — especially in cyber and space domain— also belongs to the civilian sphere. Deepened civil-military fusion would have to be the order of the day. But what should not be sacrificed in the process is the essence of military identity – character. Failure to do so could cost the country very dear.
Revitalising Canada-India Relations
Kingshuk Saha writes in News18 on Canada’s new Indo-Pacific Strategy and its implications for India’s bilateral relations with Canada:
India and Canada share a commitment to a rules-based international system. One of the major challenges to this system is the rise of an aggressive and assertive China. Its revisionist geopolitical goals, hostile interference in foreign countries and coercive treatment of other countries have undermined the rules-based international order and have created insecurity and instability in the region.
India and Canada have both experienced China’s hostile shenanigans. It is imperative that both countries need to cooperate in standing up to China’s belligerence without resorting to conflict and capitulation. Both countries need to deepen the contours of their strategic corporation in defence, trade, science and technology. There should be greater military cooperation as it would facilitate greater synergy between them.
One Nation, One Charger Policy for India
Pranay Kotasthane writes for the Times of India on the suitability of a one nation, one charger policy for India and the perils of aping such policy formulated by the European Union (EU). He uses a 4-step framework to analyse the issue:
Step 1 | Try to anticipate the unintended consequences.
Economic reasoning, history, and social context are guides for this step. The Indian government (and the EU) have determined on their citizens’ behalf that the ease of using one charger is more beneficial to them than the benefits that diverse charging technologies may offer. But is it the correct choice? For example, another technology could make charging faster; it might be lighter, etc. Next, such a decision locks users into using USB-C, which might get outdated within a few years. Third, this measure disincentivises manufacturers from developing new charging technologies. Has the government tried to estimate the costs of these unintended consequences? We don’t know because the Indian government has not yet released any impact assessment study.
Towards a World Without War
Is waging war inherent to human nature or is it a choice that states and leaders make? With global military budgets expanding and the lethality, speed and stealthiness of weapons systems enhancing, is humankind moving towards a dangerous precipice? And despite all this, can we re-negotiate a new social contract that creates a world without war?
Manoj Kewalramani talks to Sundeep Waslekar about these ideas in his new book “A World Without War: The History, Politics and Resolution of Conflict”:
5th Dr. HGV Reddy Memorial Lecture
Takshashila Institution and HGV Family organised the 5th Dr. HGV Reddy Memorial Lecture on Monday, December 26, 2022 at our office in Bengaluru. Mr. Anand Arni, Distinguished Fellow, Takshashila Institution spoke at the event and he was joined in conversation by Ambassador Latha Reddy and Dr. Vijay Chandru.
Takshashila’s Graduate Certificate in Liberal Arts (GCLA) Programme
This new year, Takshashila is offering a new programme on liberal arts which incorporates classroom teaching with experiential learning. The GCLA is a 12-week programme that offers the opportunity of a lifetime to acquire practical knowledge and skills derived from the liberal arts.
Learn how to appreciate a work of art, understand the nuances of Indian psychology, explore facets of political philosophy, perfect the skills to become a wine connoisseur, and learn to understand and interpret India’s finest temple architecture.
The course will be conducted in person in Bengaluru from February to April 2023.
That’s all from us this week. Take care and have a great year ahead!