Estimating COVID-19 Deaths in India
Dear Reader,
We hope you are doing well. In this week’s edition, we discuss India’s job crisis, cover a new assessment of estimates for COVID-19 deaths in India and analyse the evolution of India’s trade policy.
Addressing India’s Jobs Crisis
Eighteen million Indians turn 18 every year. Moreover, by some estimates, India has over 100 million people who are surplus in agriculture. Therefore, unless India creates 20 million jobs each year starting soon, this could spiral into a massive humanitarian crisis. A new discussion document by Sridhar Krishna and Aarushi Kataria, scholars working on our 20 Million Jobs project, proposes possible solutions to this crisis.
Estimating COVID-19 Deaths in India
There is much controversy surrounding the precise calculation of COVID-19 casualties in India. Nonetheless, the fidelity of casualty data is essential to assess the state’s response to COVID-19 and to derive lessons for the future.
Mihir Mahajan, Adjunct Fellow at Takshashila, and Shekhar Sathe, a banking and finance professional based in Mumbai, contributed to this discourse with a research paper published in the Economic and Political Weekly (EPW). Mihir and Shekhar use the data on the death claims settled by Indian life insurers to estimate the impact of COVID-19 in India in 2020 and 2021.
The authors reported a conservative estimate of 0.56 million missing death registrations for 2020. They also estimated 3 million additional deaths in 2021 compared to pre-pandemic year 2019. This far exceeds the government’s official estimate of 0.481 million COVID-19 deaths during this period.
The Evolution of India’s Trade Policy
Post-independence, the Indian government did not favour free trade and imposed heavy restrictions on imports using tariff and non-tariff barriers while trying to encourage exports using subsidies. The large theme of India’s trade policy during this period was that each instance of trade liberalisation and reform was not only backtracked soon after it came into effect but also pulled further back—a case of one step forward and two steps back. This has changed since then. But how did we get here?
In his essay for the Mercatus Centre’s 1991 Project—which chronicles and celebrates India’s 1991 economic reforms—Anupam Manur analysed the evolution of India’s trade policy before and after 1991.
An Era of Impeded Globalization
In an article in The Mint, Narayan Ramachandran wrote about the present and future of globalisation. He argued that:
There is plenty of evidence that globalization has broadly been of benefit to the world, with nearly a billion people emancipated from poverty. Most of the gains accrued to China and some to India and other developing countries. China benefitted disproportionately because it exploited the global system of commerce by following a targeted industrial policy, managing its exchange rate, and not being rigorous with its enforcement of intellectual property rights. Data also shows that segments of the population in the West got left behind as high-paying jobs migrated overseas. This differential impact has resulted in strong political sentiments in favour of economic nationalism, protectionism and a withdrawal from what some observers have called “hyper-globalization". The rise of Trumpism in the US and the UK’s vote for Brexit were attributable partly to discontent with globalization.
The pandemic and its aftermath and the war in Ukraine have only exacerbated that trend. Many experts are now calling this an age of de-globalization. Others are calling this “slowbalization" in anticipation of a secular stagnation in global growth.
But instead of “de-globalisation”, Naryan argued that we are witnessing an era of ‘impeded globalisation’. In this era, the global trade of certain goods and services may increase, while others will plateau or decrease. The trade of yet other goods and services might increase within regions or blocs, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but see an overall drop globally.
#BookLounge: Studies in Indian Public Finance
We are pleased to invite you to a #BookLounge webinar on Dr M Govinda Rao’s new book, Studies in Indian Public Finance.
Date and Time: Friday, 6 PM IST, 3rd June.
Dr Rao will be in conversation with Pranay Kotasthane, Deputy Director, the Takshashila Institution. Dr Rao was a member of the 14th Finance Commission and is Councillor, the Takshashila Institution.
Dr Rao has written a comprehensive book on Indian public finances by bringing together several contributions on the subject. It brings the intricate knowledge of important public finance policy issues impacting the people to lay readers.
Please note that it will be a hybrid event. If you are in Bengaluru, you can attend the event live at our office, i.e., The Takshashila Institution, 2nd floor, 46/1, Church St, Ashok Nagar, Bengaluru Karnataka 560001. Snacks and tea will be served.
The Zoom/YouTube live link will be shared in advance for online attendees.
Policy Implications from NFHS5 data
Recently the 5th National Family Health Survey report was released. The report has information about population, health, family welfare, and associated domains. In the 23 May episode of All Things Policy, Suman Joshi and Sarthak Pradhan discuss the public policy implications of some of these findings.