Do You Like Swiss Cheese?
We have not met psychology professor James T Reason of the University of Manchester to ask him whether he likes Swiss cheese. In our experience, very few people don’t, so it’d be safe to assume that Prof Reason likes it too.
In 1990, the learned professor of human error (his expertise being risk management, maintenance errors and absentmindedness), propounded a framework called the Swiss Cheese Model, a conceptual framework for the description of accidents based on the notion that accidents will happen only if multiple barriers fail, thus creating a path from an initiating cause all the way to the ultimate, unwanted consequences, such as harm to people, assets, the environment, etc.
In the Swiss cheese model, an organisation's defences against failure are modelled as a series of imperfect barriers, represented as slices of cheese, specifically Swiss cheese with holes known as "eyes", such as Emmental cheese. The holes in the slices represent weaknesses in individual parts of the system and are continually varying in size and position across the slices. The system produces failures when a hole in each slice momentarily aligns, permitting (in Reason's words) "a trajectory of accident opportunity", so that a hazard passes through holes in all of the slices, leading to a failure.
Satya Sahu, research analyst at Takshashila, has more or less used this model to understand the chip-based hardware backdoors — clandestine entry points built into semiconductor chips that allow unauthorised access and control over the systems where they are deployed.
In his latest discussion document, he writes:
“Chip-based hardware backdoors pose severe risks due to the ubiquity and meta-criticality of semiconductor chips across virtually every domain, from critical infrastructure to consumer electronics. These backdoors can enable espionage, data theft, and sabotage on an unprecedented scale while evading traditional security measures. The complex, globalised nature of the semiconductor GVC presents multiple opportunities for the insertion of backdoors by malicious actors.
The document identifies three main stages in the GVC where backdoors can feasibly be introduced: a) design, b) fabrication, and c) assembly, testing, marking, and packaging (ATMP). Each stage presents distinct challenges and attack vectors. The design stage is particularly vulnerable due to the use of third-party IP cores and electronic design automation (EDA) tools. In the fabrication stage, malicious modifications can be made to the photomasks, doping processes, or metal interconnects. The ATMP stage also offers opportunities for backdoor insertion through chip packaging and printed circuit board alterations.
Despite the grave risks posed by chip-based hardware backdoors, there is a striking lack of publicly confirmed real-world instances. This scarcity can be attributed to the extreme difficulty in detecting well-designed backdoors, the unfavourable risk-to-payoff ratio for attackers, the possibility of disguising backdoors as accidental vulnerabilities, and the reluctance of the hardware community to disclose such flaws.”
If you are, as we are, worried about these backdoors, you ought to read Satya’s paper. Keep some Swiss cheese on the side.
Tighten the Belt and Road Initiative
In the latest edition of the Interpret China series of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Takshashila’s head of the Indo-Pacific Programme Manoj Kewalramani writes:
“No official Indian delegation attended the 2023 Belt and Road Forum, which was held in Beijing in October. This has been the pattern since the first forum was held in 2017 to expand cooperation around China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, unlike the past two events, Beijing did not extend an invitation to New Delhi this time around. This offers a glimpse into the state of the bilateral relationship, which has been on a downward spiral since 2017.”
The May 9 edition of Interpret China has some of the world’s top experts giving their views on China’s flagship overseas infrastructure investment project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as it enters its second decade. Naturally, Manoj had to be one of them.
He writes:
“The official Indian view on the BRI has largely remained unchanged since 2017. If anything, some suspicions have deepened while others appear to have been confirmed. For instance, India was among the first countries to criticize BRI projects on the grounds of transparency and their potential to create an “unsustainable debt burden for communities.” For New Delhi, the concern was that this could result in China making strategic inroads across South Asia. Recent events in Sri Lanka and the Maldives seem to indicate that these concerns were prescient.”
There are other experts, too, who offer a regional perspective on the BRI, including Oyuna Baldakova, Lead Researcher for Kazakhstan, DIGISILK project, Digital Humanities Department, King's College London; Margaret Myers, Director, Asia & Latin America Program, Inter-American Dialogue; Oscar Meywa Otele, Lecturer, University of Nairobi; Nonresident Fellow, Global China Hub, Atlantic Council; and Cheng-Chwee Kuik, Professor of International Relations, IKMAS, National University of Malaysia.
India’s Opposition to Free Trade in Digital Services
India was at loggerheads with the developed nations and China at the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 13th Ministerial Conference (MC-13) in Abu Dhabi earlier this year. India’s resistance to extending the moratorium on tariffs for digital trade was one point of divergence. This stance is counterproductive, and likely to hurt India’s most promising sector.
In Hindustan Times, Pranay Kotasthane and Sridhar Krishna explain the background, and tell us why India’s stance is illogical:
“During MC-2 (1998), a moratorium on tariffs for electronic transmission was introduced, and this has nurtured the burgeoning digital trade sector. To illustrate, when a United States (US) brd chip design house transfers files electronically to its large team in India for the next level of design, there are no tariffs applicable. When the Indian team transfers the updated design files to a foundry in Taiwan for manufacturing the chip, Taiwan imposes no tariffs on the Indian company. This enabled the chip design to flow seamlessly across borders without additional costs.
Today, a plethora of services can be delivered digitally, transcending borders. At MC-13, India’s posture was at odds with digital trade stalwarts like the US and the European Union member states. They, for once, were aligned with China in seeking an extension of the moratorium and even suggesting this tariff-free trade in digital services be made permanent. It would not be wrong to say that India was virtually isolated in its opposition among the large digital powers.”
For the full column, visit this space.
Why the Chinese are worried about Taiwan’s new President
Next Monday, May 20, the new Taiwanese President, Lai Ching-te, will assume office. Naturally, China’s response will be watched. Indeed, there is intense speculation on just that thing.
In anticipation of an aggressive response, Tsai Ming-yen, Director-General of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, announced on May 1 that island authorities will be implementing measures to strengthen national critical infrastructure. Aiding the island’s overall defence posture, on April 24, United States President Joe Biden has also signed a bill to mobilise $8 billion in defence aid to the Indo-Pacific in general and Taiwan in particular. With neither the US nor China backing down on their respective positions on the Taiwan issue, these developments add fire to the already deteriorating cross-Strait dynamics.
Anushka Saxena, in her latest piece for First Post, analyses this landmark event, and the possible repercussions.
“Given that there is no let-up in either Taiwan’s defence preparedness posture or the US’ backing of the island, China is likely to dig into its coercive toolkit to respond to Lai’s swearing in. As per daily reports from the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense, Chinese aircraft and naval vessels are already operating in record numbers in the Taiwan Strait, crossing the regional median line and performing sorties close to the island’s northern and southwestern Air Defence Identification Zone.”
Read her full column here.
The Swing States Question in Indian Elections
Will the BJP or Congress maintain the trend of a single party returning more than the required majority to Parliament in 2024? Takshashila co-founder Narayan Ramachandran asks this important question in his latest column for Mint.
This is an important question because, as Narayan points out,
“It can only be either of these parties, as they are the only two contesting more than the majority number of 272 seats; BJP candidates have registered in 446 constituencies and Congress leaders in 327. Statistically speaking, the probability of the Congress achieving the halfway mark alone, with an 82% success rate required on contested seats, is very low.”
Narayan elaborates:
“Even though each seat counts as one and it matters not from which state it comes, in the 17 states with more than 10 seats each (that together make up 502), six states count as swing states. These are Maharashtra, Karnataka, West Bengal, Punjab, Chhattisgarh and Haryana. You could add Bihar to this list for 2024. These battle-ground states form a sort of cummerbund around India’s heartland. These aren’t ‘swing states’ in the American sense, as the whole state isn’t awarded to a sole winner, but because the First Past The Post winner in each constituency will likely be determined by a small margin and will be deeply influenced by the number of candidates, as well as local factors.”
Read his entire piece here.
The Myth of the Young Voter in the US Election
Who is the young voter in the US, and do they matter? In his latest column on American politics for The Free Press Journal, Takshashila’s Sachin Kalbag says, they won’t.
He writes:
“How much does the youth vote matter to Biden, and will it change the course of history? Potentially, it can. But in reality, it may not. Historically, America has been a low-voting country. Rarely does its presidential election voting percentage cross 60%. In the last 10 elections, Americans have broken the 60% barrier just once, in the 2020 election when Biden won comprehensively. In fact, the last time Americans crossed 60% in a presidential poll was 1968 — 56 years ago. The youth demographic (this includes young Jews, a contextually important sub-group) is worse. In the 18-24 age group, the voting percentage in the last seven elections is around 39%. It is abysmally low.”
In effect, Biden may not be impacted too much by the youth vote. Read Sachin’s full piece here.
Neon Bright and All That’s Right
Takshashila’s Pranay Kotasthane made an appearance at the Neon Show by Siddhartha Ahluwalia, founder of Neon Fund. As Siddhartha puts it,
“In India, public policies surround the circumference of our daily lives. Despite their omnipresence, citizens of the country adopt a rather nonchalant attitude of ‘Jo dikhta nahi hain, woh hume affect nahi karta.’ (What we don’t notice won’t affect us.)”
In this latest episode, an educational masterclass of a conversation with Pranay, Siddhartha speaks about India’s policy making since the colonial era, what entails policy making in India, how it affects each of us and what role the government plays in your life.
Watch the fascinating episode here.
Our Favourite ATP Episode of the Week
Cancer is fast emerging as a matter of public health concern in India. Challenges are aplenty, with limited access to affordable and quality healthcare and a shortage of skilled healthcare professionals. Additionally, for breast cancer, it’s also the cultural barriers, misinformation and stigma associated with this disease.
In our top pick for the All Things Policy podcast episode of the week, Malathi Renati hosts the award-winning oncologist Soumya Holla, a senior breast cancer surgeon and entrepreneur who shares her insights about cancer treatment in India. Listen to the enlightening episode here.
We swear we saw our parents right here
The Postgraduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) at Takshashila is quite simply the most amazingly comprehensive public policy course in India. This video has all the info you want, but wait—don’t Shambhavi Naik and Manoj Kewalramani give us the Desi Parents vibe here? Tell us all about it!
That’s all from us this week. Take care!