Are You Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot? It Could be the Urban Heat Island Effect
The blistering heat wave sweeping across India has plunged the nation into a sweltering crisis, affecting millions and disrupting daily life. With temperatures soaring well above the seasonal average, cities and rural areas alike are grappling with the severe consequences of this unrelenting heat. While showers have brought some relief to certain areas (including Namma Bengaluru), large parts of the country continue to struggle.
With the mercury continuing to rise, the pressing question looms: how will India weather this scorching ordeal and what measures are being taken to mitigate the impact of this extreme heat?
Dr Nithiyanandam, who heads the Geospatial Research Programme at Takshashila, offers some insights into the problem in his latest column for the New Indian Express:
“The Centre for Science and Environment, which has been publishing the ‘State of India’s Environment’ report annually since 2014, said in its 2024 report that India witnessed its warmest ever August and September in 122 years, as per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). February 2023 was also the warmest ever February on record since 1901. On September 12 last year, Srinagar recorded its second hottest day in September in 132 years. More than 3200 people died directly as a result of heat waves, and around two million hectares of cropland were damaged.”
This year so far has not been any different.
“Urban agglomerations are grappling with extreme heat, raising questions about whether these temperature increases are due to local influences and global climate change. It is not a simple answer, but if we have to understand urban heat and mitigate its effects to a certain degree, then we ought to understand what really contributes to you and me sweating more. Our grandparents were essentially right in cribbing about every year being hotter than the previous one.”
Narrowing down on the problem in urban areas, he tells us what makes our cities hot:
“In technical terms, this is called the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, where cities become warmer than their rural surroundings by approximately 2-5 degrees Celsius. While this phenomenon can benefit cities in colder climates by reducing the need for heating, it poses severe challenges in warmer areas.
In Indian cities, the UHI effect has several — and severe — negative consequences. It alters the urban microclimate, creating new zones of intense heat, increasing the demand for air conditioning and compromising thermal comfort. It heightens the risk of heat-related health issues, such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke, exacerbates chronic health conditions, encourages the spread of infectious diseases and significantly affects the mental well-being of the most vulnerable groups, particularly children and the elderly.”
To know more about the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect and how cities can plan to mitigate its consequences, read the full article here.
Nithiya also followed his piece up with an episode of All Things Policy, in which he discussed the UHI effect with Sachin Kalbag. Listen to the episode here.
Is Wealth Tax a Red Herring?
As the Indian election season heats up, so has the debate over ideas like a wealth tax. Some see it as a silver bullet, which is required to tackle economic inequality. Others view it as a pesky intruder threatening financial freedom. So, is this idea a game-changer or just another political gimmick?
Arindam Goswami, researcher at Takshashila, adds to the debate, pointing out that the real problem lies elsewhere:
“At its core, this debate transcends mere fiscal policy. Rather than focusing solely on boosting revenue, it's crucial to scrutinise expenditure. After all, even with increased revenue, the pivotal question remains: how will it be equitably distributed? This is precisely where the critical role of social security comes into play. Instead of adding more taxes, which arguably raise concerns about the potential impact on entrepreneurship, capital formation, economic growth, innovation, and investment, we need to turn this idea completely on its head. If we find that there is ‘wealth’ to be taxed, and know that nobody likes more taxes, then what alternative ways are there to use this wealth for a more just and voluntary redistribution?
After all, taxes are coercive use of state power. As an alternative, Arindam argues that growth in philanthropy and voluntary altruism over the years is something that the government can tap into given the “potential for private philanthropy to play a larger role in fostering inclusive growth and the need to facilitate this more easily.”
For example, take the (absence of) effective social security in the country. He proposes government-led initiatives that can channel philanthropic activities towards building a safety net for our citizens:
“As the landscape of philanthropy evolves, leveraging digital technology and engaging private entities can pave the way for innovative approaches to maximise the impact and reach of charitable contributions and revolutionise social security. To this end, in a previous article, the author proposed something called a Multi-Contributor Social Security system (MCSS). Individuals can designate a bank account for MCSS, where contributions can be made by various entities including governments, employers, employees, philanthropists, individuals, and companies under CSR, with tax benefits for contributors. JAM (Jan Dhan - Aadhaar - Mobile) trinity can facilitate widespread adoption. It would be divided into a long-term/special portion for pension and significant expenses, and a short-term portion for immediate needs like insurance payments, etc.”
Read his arguments here.
On the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Western Theatre Command
Last week, Anushka Saxena from our Indo-Pacific Research team published a detailed discussion document on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Western Theater Command, overseeing the sensitive borders with India.
Since 2015-16, the PLA has undergone massive reforms under Chinese President Xi Jinping. As part of the reforms, the PLA has focused intensively on preparing for combat in the ‘Information Age’, integrating its services, arms, and systems into a joint, network-centric fighting force.
The PLA Western Theater Command (WTC) in particular, has played a proactive role in working under conditions of ‘informatization’ and ‘intelligentization’ to secure China’s southern and southwestern borders, prepare for conventional and non-conventional warfighting, and acclimatise its personnel to the rough terrains and harsh altitudes of Xinjiang and Tibet.
In the paper, Anushka analyses PLA WTC’s roadmap for establishing jointness, combat preparedness, air superiority and logistics, providing in-depth insight into China’s military power in the region. Read the discussion document here.
If you are looking for a short summary of her findings, check out this thread.
China’s Road Building Ambitions in the Shaksgam Valley
China continues to build roads in high mountain passes near the border with India, with the latest being a road across the Aghil Pass in Shaksgam Valley, located a mere 30 miles from the Siachen Glacier. Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon writes in his ThePrint column that “the analysis of various pertinent factors points to the endeavour of road-building over the Aghil Pass into the Shaksgam Valley being part of resurrecting an old route that connected Yarkand in Xinjiang to Skardu in Kashmir.”
While this has future economic and trade implications, he writes that “the roads in the Shaksgam Valley are not per se a military threat to India’s security, though prudence dictates continuous monitoring.” Read his full analysis here.
Wait There’s More:
Meanwhile, China has also been ramping up its military engagement in South Asia, especially in Bangladesh, over the last decade. In a blog post for Takshashila, Akshaya Venkatakrishnan offers insights into the equation between the two through an analysis of “the significant arms transactions between China and Bangladesh from 2010 to 2022, along with recent developments that illustrate the evolving dynamics of their relationship.”
“These arms sales,” she argues, “are an integral part of China’s larger strategy to counterbalance India’s influence in South Asia while also trying to safeguard its interests in the Bay of Bengal.” Read the full post here.
Satya Sahu, research analyst with the High-Tech Geopolitics team at Takshashila, writes in a blog post for Transition Research that the artificial intelligence supply chain is intimately linked to the semiconductor value supply chain. This relationship, in turn, has implications for how countries imagine AI governance in the future. Read his work here.
Nukes in Space? For our choice for the ATP of the week, listen to this episode in which our researchers, Aditya Ramanathan and Ashwin Prasad, discuss the prospects of space-based nuclear warfare. In the realm of science fiction, space-based nuclear warfare has often been a captivating yet terrifying concept. However, as technological advancements push the boundaries of what's possible, this once-fantastical idea edges closer to reality, sparking intense global debate and concern.
Last Week to Apply to PGP!
Takshashila's 48-week Postgraduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) is a tailored programme that will introduce you to the theoretical and practical elements of public policymaking in the Indian context. You will have access to weekly interactive webinars and three in-person workshops that cover topics ranging from public policy analysis and macroeconomics to constitutional structure and ethical reasoning.
Apply by May 25 at this link to be considered for the PGP's eighth cohort! Read about our past coverage on PGP here to understand why this might just be the best decision for you.
That’s all from us this week. Take care and see you next.