Are The Machines Rising? Not Really, But Read This
In 1999, when a coding genius by the name of Thomas ‘Neo’ Anderson began saving the world in The Matrix trilogy, the viewers lapped it up, but also wondered whether, one day, machines will dominate our lives so much that humans will not be able to even operate in our reality. It was a belief born more out of scepticism than cynicism, but they let it go and allowed the Wachowski siblings (then brothers, now sisters after their gender transition) to earn nearly $470 million from just the first movie in the series.
Twenty-five years later, in July this year, a near-apocalypse reminded us how close we are to the Matrix reality. On 19 July, millions of computer systems worldwide began crashing and displaying the blue screen of death. The outage did not discriminate among user types: from airlines to hospitals, from tech companies to broadcasters, and from banks to retail outlets all were impacted. American airline companies suspended their flights; in India, we made manual entries at the airports to allow people to fly.
Our dependence on machines may not have made us enslaved to them in the real sense (philosophically, we could argue that we are, but that is a debate for another day), but Takshashila’s Lokendra Sharma cautions us in his latest tech blog post that if we don’t learn our lessons, worse may be in store.
To be sure, this was not a cyberattack or the doing of a malicious actor. What’s being touted as the biggest tech outage in history was caused by a mere 40 KB file (the now infamous channel file 291) that was pushed as an update by CrowdStrike for its Falcon sensor installed on Windows systems.
The answers to the questions raised by the incident can be given only by framing the right questions. Lokendra presents those for us in his piece.
How could a routine update be released by a reputed cybersecurity firm without fault-testing?
Notwithstanding the anticompetition concerns, Microsoft and other operating system providers need to rethink the level of access they provide to third-party software. It is not abnormal that many initially thought that this was a Microsoft outage.
The third lesson is for the global tech ecosystem. The tech ecosystem doesn’t just include tech companies broadly understood, but also every establishment having a tech element however small.
The fourth lesson is for India. Barring some sectors like airlines, India did not witness major disruption. The country’s stock exchanges and banks were only minimally impacted. However, with India accelerating its digital push — from governance to finance — more and more systems are getting deeply embedded in the global cyber constellation.
Read his full article here.
The Indian question in the Bangladesh crisis
In the first week of August this year, Bangladesh faced one of its worst crises since its Independence in March 1971. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, now in her fifth term, had to resign and escape the country following student-led demonstrations across the country.
What does the turmoil mean for India and its strategic ambitions in the immediate neighbourhood? As Takshashila scholar Yusuf Unjhawala puts it,
“The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh presents India with a complex diplomatic and strategic challenge. With the shift in the political landscape of Bangladesh, India must navigate a new reality, balancing its historical alliances with evolving dynamics. This crisis underscores the delicate interplay of regional politics, international interests, and the implications for India’s own strategic interests.”
In his latest piece for Hindustan Times, Yusuf writes how Hasina’s ouster presents India with a challenging conundrum.
“She has been one of India’s most reliable partners in the region. Her government cooperated with New Delhi on a range of issues, from counter-terrorism to trade and connectivity, and her alignment with Indian strategic interests made her an invaluable ally. However, her downfall has forced India to confront a difficult reality: the need to navigate a rapidly changing landscape in Bangladesh without jeopardising its long-term interests. India has granted her temporary asylum. Should the former Bangladeshi PM be unable to secure permanent asylum elsewhere, her extended stay could complicate India’s relations with Bangladesh. The new government may launch an investigation into the violence that resulted in numerous deaths and could potentially seek her extradition from India. And, any attempt to wash its hand off Hasina could influence other regional leaders who have traditionally aligned with India, potentially leading them to question the reliability of Indian support.”
Why should India monitor this closely? Well, the geopolitical implications of this crisis go beyond immediate bilateral concerns. Bangladesh’s strategic position and its ties with China add significant complexity to the situation. China has been a key defence supplier to Bangladesh, providing submarines, warships, and support for a new naval base designed to accommodate substantial naval assets. Additionally, China has extended a considerable amount of loans to Bangladesh. The potential for increased Chinese leverage and Bangladesh’s possible use of this relationship to counterbalance India necessitates a careful approach.
Yusuf's column can be accessed here. Meanwhile, you can also listen to Takshashila’s Sachin Kalbag converse with Yusuf on this very topic in their latest podcast collaboration for All Things Policy.
India’s Space Investment Must Focus on Outcomes, Not Just Ideas
In her Union Budget 2024-25 speech, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the inception of a ₹1000 crore venture capital fund, emphasising the government’s continued commitment to achieving a five-fold expansion of the space economy in the next decade. This announcement therefore begs the question: how to utilise the funds?
In a piece for The Print, Takshashila’s Ashwin Prasad writes how the space sector in India holds tremendous potential for creating and scaling up industries that cater to the demand for space-based services in the country. This demand, however, he says, has to come from the government first. The government’s initial role has to be one of a customer.
He writes:
“In India, the government has a huge potential to buy useful space-based services from space companies to spur development. Areas like mining, water management, land use monitoring, wildlife conservation, weather forecasting, urban planning, agriculture, and food security can tremendously benefit from the information provided by space-based technologies.”
What are the examples to learn from? The US government also supports its space companies primarily through this method rather than direct investments. NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) programme is an excellent example of how this government procurement model yields favourable outcomes for all stakeholders. In 2004, the US government announced that its space shuttles would be retired due to high costs and safety concerns. The COTS programme was started in 2006 to replace the space shuttles.
Read Ashwin’s full piece here.
Our All Things Policy Podcast Pick of the Week
In our pick for All Things Policy this week, Adya Madhavan is in conversation with Dr Srinath Raghavan on the legacy of Partition. Dr Raghavan sheds light on how the institutions left behind by the British influenced the institutions of today in both India and Pakistan. He explains how this affected the militaries of both countries and what the implications of these colonial legacies are for the civil-military relations of today. Dr Raghavan also explores how the nature of the military affects Indo-Pak relations and their future.
Listen to their fascinating discussion here.
China’s Veterans Are Protesting, And The Govt Is Listening
On August 1, the same day China’s People’s Liberation Army celebrated with great pomp-and-show its 97th founding anniversary, a Beijinger clad in military uniform sat atop a high-rise amid the busy streets of Wangfujing shopping district, unfurled a banner that accused the government of Kunming city, Yunnan province (where he reportedly works a resettlement job in Guandu District), of stifling the rights of a soldier transitioning after 12 years of service.
Takshashila’s Anushka Saxena says that this incident is not isolated and that it “must be viewed as the latest in a long line of protests held by military veteran communities in China, many of which have been much larger and more organized compared to the Wangfujing soldier’s lone-man show.”
She reminds us that it is a myth that there are no protests in China. Not just that, the government seems to be responding.
“Within a span of two weeks, the party-state has released a new and a revised set of regulations respectively on resettlement of retired personnel and better management of pension benefits, signaling a willingness to take veteran concerns seriously. More so, these play a symbolic role in expressing support for ex-servicemen, whom Xi Jinping has referred to as “an important force in advancing Chinese modernization.”
The implementation, however, will be key. The Military Pension Benefits Regulations, revised on August 5, 2024, call for local governments to create funds and working expenses to disburse pensions to retired personnel based on their “contributions.” Per the regulations, this would require, in addition to a consideration of the post during retirement, an evaluation of the medals won by the concerned personnel, the per-capita disposable income of urban residents nationwide for the previous financial year, and the dependents in the concerned family.
Read here full piece here.
Wait, there’s more!
Our China Challenge survey just got extended. The survey is meant for all our readers to help us assess public opinion on India-China relations. Filling out the survey should not take more than five minutes. Head out here, and let us know what your thoughts are.
How to build a sporting nation is the central theme of Takshashila’s five-week introductory course on India’s sports ecosystem. This course is for anyone who is interested in sports and wants to understand the nuts and bolts of India's sports ecosystem. From a look at India's sports policy journey to listening from experts and former players on how we can improve the governance, involve the markets and transform society from being mere onlookers to enablers of change. This course is an attempt for us to rethink the importance of sports at all levels: cultural, economics and well-being.
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Every single detail of the new course can be found here.
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Full details here.
