An Olympian Question: Why Do We Spend At All?
Is it true that the person who wins the bronze medal at the Olympics is happier than the person who earned the silver? Think about it. The athlete in second place at the podium will forever be wracked by the question: If only I could have added that 1% for the gold. The sportsperson winning the bronze is just happy she did not come fourth.
At Paris 2024, India won five bronze and one silver; not its best-ever performance when everyone was expecting 10 medals, with at least one gold (Neeraj Chopra). Turns out, the bigger story for India was how we had six fourth-place finishes, including one miss by shooter Manu Bhaker who would have a record three individual bronze medals. To bring an odious cricket analogy, if Sachin Tendulkar had converted the 28 times he got out in the 90s, he would have had so many more international hundreds than the 100 he ended up with (for comparison, Sir Don Bradman never once got out in the 90s).
Takshashila’s Dispatch is not a forum where we examine the “Why” of India’s poor showing at world sporting events, but we sure do ask the question of the use of public money in sports.
In his latest column for Mint, Nitin Pai asks: Why should public money be spent on sports? Conventional wisdom suggests we have three reasons: One, promoting a sporting culture can meaningfully reduce healthcare expenditure (plus you get a fitter society). This is the public health argument. It does not necessarily follow that the government should spend on the Olympics, but it does have a place in policymaking.
The second reason is social psychology. Sports is a substitute for war (heck, there have been at least four recorded instances when football matches or football players have successfully intervened to halt military conflict or civil wars), and winning at the Olympics significantly amplifies national aspiration (some of the lowest per capita income countries have won gold medals and boosted their self-confidence).
The third is a little boring, but equally important. Investment in sport can be a source of economic activity, growth and development. Around the world, many cities have invested in massive sports facilities and Formula One circuits to attract visitors who will spend on hotels, shopping and tourist attractions.
But do these three reasons converge. Nitin examines just that in his Mint column. He writes:
While we have three reasons for government to invest in sports, they each suggest a different goal and different strategies. Public health calls for government to promote a sporting lifestyle by providing for sports facilities. National glory recommends hothousing world champions by focusing resources on our best bets. Economic benefits will come if we focus on celebrity sportspeople and franchises. You can’t have all three, especially so if you have budget constraints. In other words, India must choose why it must invest taxpayer money on sports. Else we will spread our energies and our budget too thin to make a serious impact towards any one goal.
While we cannot become Australia in one generation (2024 performance: 18 gold, 19 silver and 16 bronze, with a population of just 26 million), the public-money-in-sports needs to become a central point in the national discourse in India.
You can read Nitin’s piece here.
What Agniveers Really Need is Jobs
Trust Lt Gen Prakash Menon to hit the nail on the head.
The political slugfest over the Agnipath scheme, he says, has spurred several announcements by the Ministry of Home Affairs and BJP-ruled states. They plan to reserve vacancies for Agniveers who cannot be retained after their four-year tenure in the Armed Forces. The home ministry announced reserved vacancies in the Central Armed Police Forces for Agniveers who have completed their tenure. BJP-ruled states such as Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Arunachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana have also promised to accord priority to ex-Agniveers for employment in State Police and other security-related jobs.
“Though the promises of absorption in government jobs are being held out, one can expect internal resistance within government organisations. This would be due to an increasing demand for jobs driven by a growing, job-seeking young population. Desperate for jobs, there is the likelihood of some ex-Agniveers taking their skills to be utilised on the battlefields abroad. The deaths of Indians in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza wars should serve as a warning signal of these possible outcomes. There is also the chance of ex-Agniveers picking up the gun in support of existing and future insurgencies.”
Therefore, there is a solid and urgent reason for the Indian government to ensure that the Agniveer scheme does not go to waste. It follows that there are some structural changes required for the Agniveers to continue being productive.
Read Lt Gen Menon’s full piece in The Print here.
China’s Rapid Investment in Tibet: A Geospatial Analysis
Our geospatial professor Dr Y Nithiyanandanam is blunt when he writes how, over the past 10 years, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has expanded its military infrastructure and presence in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and Xinjiang, part of China’s Western Theatre Command. Of particular importance is the strengthening of the PLA's Army and Air Force infrastructure in TAR, aimed at high-altitude operational capability. This is a strategic move to match or gain superiority over India in the region.
In his latest newsletter (we highly recommend you subscribe to it here), Nithiya writes how the PLA's sustained focus on bolstering its military presence and building infrastructure in these areas has significantly increased its operational capabilities. The developments in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) have enhanced civilian activities and augmented military operations. From India’s point of view, it is important to note the advancements in air infrastructure, which have attracted attention from researchers and analysts, especially in the aftermath of the 2017 Doklam standoff and the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. These infrastructure enhancements could impact India and other neighbours in a conflict.
Using high-tech geospatial software, Nithiya lays bare the areas and regions where the PLA has invested in air strips, helipads and heliports.
He writes:
“The heliports and helipads at critical locations within the TAR are invaluable assets to the region's air infrastructure. These facilities are strategically established to support transporting personnel, supplies, and other necessities for PLA ground forces. Their locations are carefully chosen to leverage natural topographical protection and ensure they remain off the direct line of access from different regions.”
Read his full analysis here.
The renowned publication Geospatial World recently interviewed Nithiya on India’s unique approach to military space development and the increasing importance of geospatial in defence.
You can read the interview here.
Is India Well-Placed to Become the Next China?
This is not a question from 1991. The Indian economy has come under greater scrutiny as the debate over whether the country will be the “next China” intensifies.
Admittedly, China was a key driver of global growth for almost three decades, contributing more than a quarter to global gross domestic product expansion between 1990 and 2020. In the period from 2013 to 2021, China contributed almost 39% of global GDP growth — 13% more than the G7 countries combined.
Takshashila’s Amit Kumar contends that India is endowed with a similar advantage today. He writes in a piece for Nikkei Asia:
“It currently boasts the second-largest consumer base — defined as people spending above $12 a day — of over 500 million, second only to China’s 900 million. Estimates show that by 2030, India's consumer base will expand to 773 million, trailing only China’s 1.062 billion. The gap between China and India will only shrink from here on.”
Moreover, India currently contributes 16% of the global economic growth, as opposed to China's 34%. The IMF predicts India's share to rise to 18% in the next five years. As China witnesses a decline in its share going ahead owing to its economic slowdown, India is strategically placed to emerge as the leading engine of growth, provided it navigates the above challenges deftly.
Do you agree with Amit? Head over to this page to read his piece, and send him your thoughts!
Our Multimedia Highlights of the Week
Policy wonks at Takshashila have been busy recording audio and video episodes on some important issues. This is a list of our picks of the week.
Catch Manoj Kewalramani, the head of our Indo-Pacific Programme, on Pekingology with Jude Blanchette, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. They discuss interpreting Beijing's actions and Sino-India relations. Listen to the podcast here.
Our favourite All Things Policy episode of the week is one on how the much-anticipated 'third plenum' leaves questions unanswered. Between 15 and 18 July 2024, the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China conducted its much-anticipated Third Plenum meeting and produced the 'Decisions' document for the meeting on July 21. The document has addressed a few questions pertaining to the comprehensive deepening of reforms in Chinese society, economy, and military, leaving many unanswered. In this episode of 'All Things Policy', Anushka Saxena quizzes Manoj Kewalramani on the learnings from the Third Plenum Decisions and what's in store for Chinese-style modernisation moving forward.
Manoj also appeared on The Neon Show talking about, what else, the India-China question. Watch the YouTube video here.
We are hiring!
Takshashila has five current openings. If you are interested in working with us, drop us an email. All the details of the roles are here.
Our Next GCPP Cohort is in September. Are You In?
Takshashila’s signature programme — the Graduate Certificate in Public Policy — meets for its latest cohort in September. You can get all the details of the programme here and also apply for it. It is easily India’s best-organised short-term public policy course for professionals and students alike, and since all the classes are held over weekends, you don’t have to worry about juggling projects.
Go right ahead. Apply here.
Are You With Us On Quora?
We have a special All Things Policy page on Quora. In the latest discussion, Anushka Saxena answers a complex question: Is China entering a lost decade or generation like Japan had after rapid and unstable economic growth? She points to an excellent article by colleague Amit Kumar on this topic. You should check both out, and of course, follow us on Quora.
Extended: The China Challenge Survey
At Takshashila, we have opened a survey to all our readers to help us assess public opinion on India-China relations. Filling out the survey should not take more than five minutes. Head out here, and let us know what your thoughts are.