A Vaccine Diplomacy Framework for India
Dear Reader,
Given the arrival of winter and unseasonal rains, we hope that you and your loved ones are safe and well. Since we last wrote to you, our research has covered China-Taiwan tensions, India’s vaccine diplomacy, the geopolitics of climate change and approaches to social media regulation.
A Vaccine Diplomacy Framework for India
The COVID-19 pandemic has made the importance of vaccines apparent. Vaccination is only rivalled by clean drinking water in promoting public health. Developing, maintaining, and advancing public health globally relies on a robust and equitable vaccination policy, amongst other measures. And yet, the New York Times global vaccine tracker shows that as of 27th September 2021, only 0.5% of total administered doses have been given to citizens of low-income countries.
Our new discussion document, Vaccine Diplomacy Framework for India, by Pranathi Rao, Ruturaj Gowaikar and Shambhavi Naik, provides a framework to broaden the scope of India’s vaccine diplomacy during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has highlighted the inequality of vaccine distribution worldwide, allowing India to step into the vacuum left by traditional global leaders.
This framework can simplify and streamline the interaction of foreign policy and science. It provides an avenue to develop foreign ties through scientific advancement. By looking at the advantages of vaccine diplomacy, the possible methods of aid that India can offer, and the regulations governing the process, India can develop a robust framework for vaccine diplomacy that allows it to extend its influence through novel means.
What China-Taiwan Tensions Mean For India
Megha Pardhi, Suyash Desai and Manoj Kewalramani recently authored a Takshashila Intelligence Estimate document on what the tensions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan mean for India. The assessment discusses three possible scenarios relevant for Indian policymakers and analysts:
The first scenario, in which the status quo is maintained between PRC and Taiwan, is best suited for India. This requires a two-pronged policy of deterring the PRC, while cautiously engaging with Taiwan and discouraging ambitions of independence.
The second scenario, in which Taiwan declares independence, will change the status quo and destabilise the Indo-Pacific. Hence, New Delhi should dissuade Taiwanese officials from moving in the direction of independence. If Taiwan still declares independence, India’s diplomacy should seek to contain escalation.
The third scenario, which involves China invading Taiwan, might result in three distinct potential war scenarios. A decisive PLA campaign that ends with ‘reunification’ and a protracted conflict involving regional and extra-regional powers are not ideal scenarios for Indian interests. A short and indecisive conflict is likely the best-case outcome from an Indian perspective. In this case, New Delhi should ideally join the international community in condemning the PRC’s aggression, while refraining from military signaling.
America’s Nuclear Policy
In a short research output, The US & No First Use, Aditya Ramanathan and Aditya Pareek analyse the US’s nuclear policy and make the case for a global no first use (GNFU) agreement regarding nuclear weapons.
The United States has initiated its fifth Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which is expected to be concluded in early 2022. The Biden administration is reportedly exploring the possibility of including a “sole purpose” declaration in the NPR that will state that the sole purpose of US nuclear weapons will be to deter or retaliate against a nuclear attack.
A “sole purpose” declaration is similar to a declaration or pledge of no-first-use of nuclear weapons. At present, only India and China have made such pledges. US allies have resisted past US attempts at a “sole purpose” declaration, fearing that it will embolden adversaries. US allies are primarily concerned that such a declaration will be seen as a sign of weakened American commitment to defending them. These concerns can be allayed by seeking a global no-first-use (GNFU) agreement.
Such an agreement would help slow down the nuclear competition and reduce alert levels. The result would be greater stability in peacetime, lower nuclear risks during crises, and less vertical and horizontal proliferation of nuclear weapons. As a strategic partner of the US that has made a no first use pledge, India is in a unique position to push the US towards joining it in pursuing a GNFU agreement.
The Geopolitics Of Climate Change
In the Mint, Nitin Pai wrote about the geopolitical consequences of the pledges undertaken at the COP26 summit to combat climate change. Sceptical of the motives behind the commitment of rich countries towards fighting climate change, he argues:
The righteousness of the West’s most ardent climate advocates must be seen against their abject failure to make COVID-19 vaccines available to billions of people in need of them today. The pandemic, like climate, is an indivisible collective threat to humankind. So countries, societies and leaders who are effectively refusing to come to the aid of billions of real people in this generation can hardly be relied upon to help future generations. Talk of $1 trillion in green financing and assistance from rich countries must be taken with liberal pinches of organic salt, given that we are still waiting for them to part with the $100 billion per year they promised at Paris six years ago.
New Delhi can neither rely on the rich countries keeping to their emission commitments nor on receiving compensation for sacrificing growth.
Moreover, he writes, while hoping that the goal of reducing carbon emissions is achieved, it would be unwise to ignore the geopolitical and economic problems this might present. For developing countries, a reduction in carbon emissions might require straying from, or abandoning, well-known paths to prosperity. Similarly, the supply of technology and raw materials required for renewable energy production might come to be dominated by countries like China, presenting a whole new set of challenges.
How Piped Water Empowers Women
Piped water allows women, the primary caretakers of a household, more time for paid labour and leisure, thus improving their bargaining capacity at home and in the labour market. On the 18th November Episode of All Things Policy, Apurva Kumar and Suman Joshi discuss a new paper examining the impact of piped water on India’s women. Listen to the full podcast below:
Understanding Social Media Platforms Better
Over the years, many harms have been attributed to Social Media platforms and instant messaging apps. Despite their high adoption over the last decade, estimates suggest that approximately 50% of the world’s population does not use them yet. Thus, there is significant space for further amplification of the harms (and benefits) attributed to them.
A new video by Prasanna Naidu and Prateek Waghre provides a quick overview of Digital Communication Networks and their harms. It is based on the first paper in a series of working papers by Takshashila that will explore the governance of Digital Communication Networks (DCNs).
Run The Marathon To Transform India (And Your Career)
Applications for the January 2022 cohort of Takshashila’s public policy courses are now open.
We offer two kinds of recurring programmes. The Graduate Certificate in Public Policy (GCPP) is offered over 12 weeks, while the Post-Graduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) is offered over 48 weeks.
The GCPP is the ideal introductory course to public policy and governance for working professionals. It will help you master the fundamentals of economics, policy evaluation, ethical reasoning, effective communication and public persuasion.
The GCPP is available in four streams: Defence and Foreign Affairs (DFA), Technology & Policy (TP), Advanced Public Policy (APP) and Health & Life Sciences (HLS).
The DFA stream will teach you how to analyse current international affairs by providing you with a strong foundation in international relations, strategic studies and economic analysis.
The TP stream is for those who wish to understand the political economy of technology. Participants will be equipped to navigate the rapidly evolving technology ecosystem to capitalise on the opportunities while managing the risks.
The APP stream will equip you with a firm understanding of the fundamentals of public policy and governance. Students completing the programme will be able to apply this understanding in their professional lives and political discourse.
The HLS stream is for those who wish to understand the political economy of public health and life sciences, particularly in the backdrop of a pandemic.
The PGP brings together policy practitioners and academic experts from across the world. The programme is academically rigorous and attuned to the current requirements of industry, media, social sector and politics.
It equips participants with a core set of skills in policy evaluation, economic reasoning, effective communication and public persuasion. Its emphasis is on how these skills can be applied to formulate and analyse policies in various settings.
The January cohorts of both GCPP and PGP begin on 15th January 2022. You can avail of a 10% early bird scholarship by applying before 4th December 2021.
What We Have Been Reading
This week’s book is Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. Recommending it, Anupam Manur says:
Looking at the large number of people wearing masks around their chins instead of covering their noses and mouths, I was interested in exploring if behavioural economics could provide some answers in this regard and nudge people towards more COVID appropriate behaviour.
So I picked up what can now be termed as a classic in this space - Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein. The book covers a range of policy tools available within the ambit of Libertarian Paternalism to improve decision making among individuals. In its original version, the book covers individual decisions about health, savings, organ donation and marriage, but there are a lot of ideas that can be useful in the COVID-19 scenario as well.
Get reading!
That’s it from us this week. Take care and stay safe!