Why Maldives Matters
We don’t know when Zheng He died. There is some debate among historians whether he died in 1433 or 1435. We are not historians (at least the writer of this newsletter isn’t ). Therefore, we will go with what is indubitable fact. Zheng He — mariner, explorer, diplomat, and fleet admiral extraordinaire during China’s early Ming dynasty — visited Maldives first in 1411 and later in 1430, setting up at least minimal trade relations between China and the Indian Ocean island nation.
China was not the first, of course. From India, the Kalingas had already established trade routes, as had the kingdoms of Aceh (in modern-day Indonesia) and surrounding islands from modern-day Malaysia. But it was Beijing that set up the first diplomatic mission in independent Maldives in 1966, soon after the British left in 1965. The only difference is that the first embassy was set up by the Chinese nationalist government based in Taipei, which the People’s Republic of China has now taken over. India set up its ambassadorial mission in 1980.
It seems that the Indians and the Chinese have been deeply interested in Maldives for several centuries, and the current pow-wow between the two over who is the “more important” neighbour of Maldives is not a 21st-century phenomenon.
Rakshith Shetty, research analyst at Takshashila, navigates the recent India-Maldives spat in the context of modern history, specifically in relation to China.
“As seen through investments and infrastructure projects associated with the Belt and Road Initiative,” Rakshith writes, “India's interest is heightened by concerns about China's expanding influence in the Maldives. The big question is whether China's military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), will have a steady presence in the Maldives. President (Mohammed) Muizzu says sending Indian troops back doesn't mean getting soldiers from another country, but even if he does let PLA in, there’s little India can do about it.”
He adds:
“A constructive way forward could entail reducing tensions and recognising that diplomatic relationships are shaped by permanent interests rather than permanent friends or foes, or, in this case, disparaging Twitter posts. As the Maldivian opposition leader, Fayyaz Ismail, suggested, the government should take proactive steps to mend ties with India. India's significant economic influence as the Maldives' fifth-largest trade partner in 2021 is apparent. However, China's deep pockets dampen the potential for India to leverage this economic capacity for coercive purposes. China holds over 60 per cent of Maldives' sovereign debt, and an intentional economic withdrawal by India might trigger a backlash, potentially pushing the Maldives to depend more on China. It would also likely alienate the local population, thereby reducing the influence of political elites that favour closer ties with India.”
You can read his perceptive blog post here.
Our Contextual Post Is Placed Here!
If you have not been to OpenTakshashila, our free and open platform, head over right now. You see, OpenTakshashila is not just for our 10,000-plus alumni network, it is, well, open to anyone. It is a place for bright ideas, TILs, free public policy courses, quizzes, and just about anything you’d like it to be when it comes to policy and policy-led thinking. If you like what’s happening there, refer a friend too.
Army Promotions: Capability The Only Deciding Factor
Trust Lt Gen Prakash Menon to hold a mirror to those who wield power.
“Discrimination based on identity derived from lineage is the hardened core of the caste system,” he writes in his latest column for The Print. “In the Indian Army, the enduring marker for the selection of its senior leadership is the lineage or ‘inherited identity’, particularly the professional segment one is initially inducted into.”
Gen Menon informs us that there recently has been an attempt to standardise identity in the Army by making uniforms the same for Brigadier and higher ranks. This involved removing regimental distinctions like the colour of the beret, lanyard, and other insignia. But it would turn out to be a mere cosmetic change without bringing any shift in military mindset.
He writes:
“What needs to be addressed is making ‘acquired qualities’ of Brigadiers, and above, the central index for judging leadership potential. Currently, ‘inherited’ identity is privileged and ‘acquired’ qualities take a back seat. The nature and form of discrimination are buried in the rules and procedures, making it harder to notice it. It is experienced by only a relatively small number of officers when results of the promotion board or nominations to key courses are announced.”
Gen Menon has not only put the spotlight on an apparent recruitment weakness in the Indian Army, he has also suggested solutions.
“Excluding persons from important higher leadership positions through a quota system and privileging the lineage-based majority cannot result in selecting the brightest and the best. The catchment area should ideally include all individuals with acquired capabilities, and the selection system should be entrusted to make assessments and choices. The ACR-based selection system is seldom able to discriminate between outstanding/good and bad/worst. When layered with discriminatory reservation practices like doorkeeping at the NDC, it could have a pernicious impact on the Services.”
You can read his column here.
In Tamil: A Geospatial Analysis of Urbanisation in Tibet
We have been long-time fans of Dr Y Nithiyanandanam’s blog posts on geospatial analysis of India’s strategic concerns. If you have not been introduced to it so far, we recommend you do so right away.
Nithiya has not only been opening our eyes to a completely new set of analyses, but he has been doing in regional languages as well. A few months ago, he began recording geospatial explainers in Tamil. The latest in the series is where Nithiya explains to his Tamil audience the rapid urbanisation in Tibet and what it means to India.
Nithiya says,
“Delving into Tibet's urbanisation through the lens of urban geography and geospatial technology set against the backdrop of historical, cultural, military, and environmental significance, is not just a regional endeavour but a globally pertinent one. The dynamics of Tibet’s urbanisation, the underlying causes, and the far-reaching implications offer a unique perspective, contributing significantly to the broader narrative of urban development and its possible impact on India.”
You can read his Substack post on Tibet’s urbanisation here, and you can watch his explainer in Tamil here.
What’s Vivek Ramaswamy Up To in the United States?
On the day the Iowa Republican Caucus returned its voting result and gave former President Donald Trump a thumping win, the former leading Indian American candidate for the GOP nomination — Vivek Ramaswamy — suspended his campaign and threw his weight behind a person who is accused of 91 serious electoral crimes, including planning and executing an insurrection on January 6, 2021.
Ramaswamy, a millionaire many times over and a former biotech executive, ran a successful campaign until his electoral paths hit a border wall named Trump. He knew he had nothing to gain, and he pulled out. But what he did later is more dramatic, according to Sachin Kalbag — he began auditioning for the vice presidency.
Going by the current trend, it is evident that Trump is more or less certain to win the Republican nomination to go against incumbent Joe Biden, a democrat. But he needs a reliable (actually, a puppet) vice president. No one fits the bill better than Ramaswamy.
As Sachin writes in the Free Press Journal:
“Trump may come across as an imbecile policymaker, but he is a Grade A politician. He knows there are two constituencies he needs to attract for the November polls: the youth and a consolidation of the hard right vote. How can he do that? Get a guy who is more right than he, of course. Stefanik, mentioned above, is a hardnosed politician, but she does not have a mass base. Ramaswamy, on the other hand, is 38, a multimillionaire, he knows technology, and he uses his intelligence to push hardline immigration policies that will, in fact, make it harder for the US to import talent. You could argue it will hurt the Immigrant Nation in the long run, but Trump and Ramaswamy are looking at this election cycle, not 25 years hence.”
With Trump facing serious legal indictments and at least two states barring him from the ballot, the drama over the November elections may have just begun. Even among Republicans, there are two Indian Americans that are placed at the centre of it all — former South Carolina Governor Nimrata ‘Nikki’ Haley and Ramaswamy.
You can read Sachin’s analysis of the current situation in American politics here.
Our Pick for the All Things Policy Podcast of the Week
The Moon is about to get crowded, with governments and private companies planning multiple missions over the next decade. India has its own ambitions as well, which include several uncrewed missions culminating with a human landing in 2040. However, the rules for lunar exploration were written more than half-a-century ago and are showing their age. Our pick for Podcast of the Week is where Takshashila analysts Saurabh Todi and Aditya Ramanathan talk about the strange but growing problem of lunar governance.
It is as fascinating as it is enlightening. You can listen to it here.
On the Importance of the Taiwan Elections
Our resident China geek, Manoj Kewalramani, analyses the Taiwan election results for TRT World. Soon after the elections, the Micronesian island nation of Nauru said it would sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favour of China. It's the first of Taiwan's dwindling number of official allies to switch since the weekend's presidential and parliamentary elections.
Manoj explains his POV here.
Wait, There’s More!
There are two really exciting events happening at Takshashila this week.
On Wednesday, January 24, we will have India’s Chief Economic Adviser, Dr V Anantha Nageswaran, deliver the seventh Dr HGV Reddy Memorial Lecture. The event is scheduled to begin at 4.30 pm in person at the Takshashila office.
To commemorate Republic Day, Prof. Achyut Chetan will discuss his remarkable work ‘Founding Mothers of the Indian Republic’, a book that uncovers the story of the role played by the women members of the Constituent Assembly in the framing of our Constitution. This event (January 26, 7-8 pm) is online and open For All. You can participate using this meeting link. You can share it with your friends and family, too!
Last week, we had a sombre and absorbing discussion on India’s road safety policies with Piyush Tewari, the founder of SaveLIFE Foundation, a nonprofit committed to saving lives on roads in India and beyond since 2008.
Then, we had Pranay Kotasthane and Abhiram Manchi discuss their blockbuster book When The Chips Are Down with Shree Kumar, Senior Architect, Innominds. Several Bengaluru folks landed up at the Takshashila office to listen to yet another insightful BookLounge conversation.
That’s all from us this week. See you next!