Normal is Boring But Boring is Good
In Today's Edition: Interim Budget, Nuclear Power, Critical Technologies & A New Takshashila Fellowship Announcement
In 1982, the third season of the classic Yes, Minister series aired in the UK. One particular episode — The Whiskey Priest — is an object lesson for bureaucrats and politicians in maintaining the status quo; you know, when the stuff that you don’t do is more important than the stuff you do?
James Hacker, the minister, is confronted by a moral question: should he report the confidential tip he received about the sale of British arms to a terrorist organisation? Sir Humphrey Appleby, his department’s secretary, discourages him. Why, asks Hacker.
Pardon the long conversation, but like we said, it is a mirror into how government works, and it will lead us to what Takshashila’s Anupam Manur has to say about the recently presented Vote on Account or the 2024-25 Interim Budget.
“Hacker: Humphrey, we have to do something.
Sir Humphrey: With respect Minister, we have to do nothing.
Hacker: What do you mean?
Sir Humphrey: The sale of arms abroad is one of those areas of government that we do not examine too closely.
Hacker: Well, I have to, now that I know about it.
Sir Humphrey: But you could say you don't know.
Hacker: Are you suggesting I should lie?
Sir Humphrey: Oh, not you, no!
Hacker: Who should lie?
Sir Humphrey: Sleeping dogs, Minister.
Hacker: I am going to raise this.
Sir Humphrey: No, Minister, I beg you. A basic rule of government is never look into anything you don't have to. And never set up an inquiry unless you know in advance what its findings will be.
Hacker: I don't believe this! We're talking about good and evil.
Sir Humphrey: Ah, Church of England problem.
Hacker: No, Humphrey, our problem. We are discussing right and wrong.
Sir Humphrey: You may be, Minister, but I'm not. It would be a serious misuse of government time.
Hacker: Selling arms to terrorists is wrong, can't you see that Humphrey?
Sir Humphrey: No, Minister. Either you sell arms, or you don't. If you sell them, they will inevitably end up with people who have the cash to buy them.
Hacker: It is all very well to take this lightly, Humphrey, but we cannot close our eyes to something that is as morally wrong as this.
Sir Humphrey: Very well, Minister, if you insist on making me discuss moral issues, may I point out that something is either morally wrong or it isn't. It can't be slightly morally wrong.
Hacker: Don't quibble, Humphrey.
Sir Humphrey: Government isn't about morality.
Hacker: Really? What is it about then?
Sir Humphrey: Stability. Keeping thing going. Preventing anarchy. Stopping society falling to bits. Still being here tomorrow.
Hacker: What for?
Sir Humphrey: I beg your pardon?
Hacker: What is the ultimate purpose of government if it isn't for doing good?
Sir Humphrey: Government isn't about good and evil. It's about order or chaos.
Hacker: And it is in order for Italian terrorists to get British bombs and you don't care?
Sir Humphrey: It's not my job to care. That's what politicians are for. My job is to carry out government policy.
Hacker: Even if you think it's wrong?
Sir Humphrey: Well, almost all government policy is wrong, but frightfully well carried out.”
Anupam feels that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s interim budget follows the ‘Let sleeping dogs lie’ principle. Kind of. Instead of succumbing to the temptation of going for big bang reforms, the Narendra Modi government decided to be boring, and boring is good, says Anupam.
“Ceteris paribus,” Anupam writes, “a boring budget is a good budget and this one definitely fits the bill. The impressive part was the resistance on part of the government to introduce any big, populist measures aimed at strengthening their position before the upcoming elections.”
Anupam’s analysis of the various announcements came just an hour after the minister concluded her speech on February 1 (Anupam is not a T20 cricketer, but he did play like one that day) and looked at how they will be impacted until the final budget is presented once the new government is sworn in later this year.
He has a few words of caution, though.
“While there was no big announcement that harmed the fiscal consolidation path,” Anupam writes, “fiscal deficit still remains stubbornly high. At 5.8 per cent of GDP, the borrowing space for private players is extremely low and thus, has been crowded out by public borrowing. This explains the worryingly low levels of private investment.”
You can read the full piece here.
How Green Is Your Nuclear Power Plant?
Very, asserts Takshashila co-founder Narayan Ramachandran in his latest column for Mint. Narayan has written a perceptive piece on the occasion of 50 years of India’s first nuclear weapon test — Pokhran 1 — in 1974.
He writes:
“Starting with India’s nuclear pioneer and evangelist Dr. Homi Bhabha, India has been at the forefront of the thinking on civilian nuclear power. It has been handicapped by its poor quality of uranium ore and its exclusion from the global supply chain for over 3 decades. Since 2008, the speed of our nuclear “thinking” and research have picked up, but actual impact on nuclear power has been slow to develop. India has 22 nuclear reactors in operation at 8 nuclear power plants. Total installed capacity of nuclear power is about 7.4 GW, making up 3.1% of annual power generation in India. Recently, the Government approved the setting up of 10 more reactors which is expected to double the installed capacity by 2030. At that rate, the contribution of nuclear power in the pie is unlikely to increase very much since total power generation is also expected to double.”
But it is not just about nuclear power generation, these technologies, Narayan says, will go a long way in helping India achieve its Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets, and the rather tough climate action objectives.
“Nuclear power represents a non-fossil-based source of power that can aid India in its climate action plan. Fourth generation nuclear reactors are much safer than previous generations. We have naturally been more focussed on renewable sources like solar and wind but for power generation the right answer is “all of the above”. While Dr. Bhabha set out India’s nuclear power aspirations with remarkable forethought, the execution has lagged that aspiration. It is time to accelerate the nuclear power path.”
You can read Narayan’s column here.
What are ‘Critical Technologies’ and Why Should They Matter?
On January 31, four of our Takshashila colleagues — Shambhavi Naik, Saurabh Todi, Amit Kumar, and Anushka Saxena — compiled their internal conference papers into a single compendium. What exactly are ‘critical technologies’, and what makes them critical? It is important for policymakers and students of policy to understand this. The four papers aim to do just that.
Shambhavi’s paper lays the groundwork.
“The term critical indicates a threat to routine operations if the critical component is missing. The government identifying a technology as critical demands follow-up public policy action to build domestic competency. Thus, this paper proposes that a technology should meet three criteria to be deemed “critical”:
It should fill a gap or solve a problem with net benefit over existing solutions
The absence of the technology should threaten national security
A critical technology requires governmental action in case of market failure.”
Saurabh expands on this with a specific reference to India and proposes what India’s policy on critical tech should look like.
India’s critical technology policy will depend on specific technologies it labels as critical. Nevertheless, policymakers must consider the following principles irrespective of an identified critical technology while formulating policies related to critical technologies:
“The policy should strengthen national security and promote the country's economic growth. The overarching aim must be to develop indigenous capabilities wherever possible, keeping in mind India’s comparative advantage. This could be in collaboration with a friendly country, or with a partner country, or it could be could be a completely indigenous endeavour. However, this aim should not hinder India’s active participation in global value chains. Emphasis should be to on participate participating actively in standards development organisations of an identified technology. Emphasis must also be placed on removing vulnerabilities with respect to risky trade partners and major gaps in technology development ecosystem. This includes ensuring that dependence on our adversaries is minimised for critical technologies or their components.”
Read the full compendium here.
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On Narrative Dominance, Information Warfare and the Freedom to Think
Takshashila co-founder Nitin Pai has a new paper on narrative dominance, information warfare, and the freedom to think. Published by the Centre for International Governance Innovation, Nitin’s latest work looks at how, with society today structured around the production, consumption and effects of information, the ancient practice of information warfare has become the centrepiece of international politics.
Nation-states and non-state actors, among others, are engaged in a relentless global contest to control narratives and influence people’s thinking for political purposes. Cognitive autonomy thus becomes a national security objective. There must also be constitutional safeguards to prevent governments from directing information power against their own citizens.
Nitin presents a high-level analysis of the external, geopolitical dimension of information warfare and offers recommendations for defence and national security policies for liberal democratic states.
You can read the paper here.
India’s concerns about Chinese maritime research vessels are well-founded
In her latest piece for The Diplomat, Takshashila’s research analyst Anushka Saxena writes about how, in September 2019, the Indian Navy drove away the Shiyan 1, a Chinese research vessel that had been caught operating without authorisation in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off the coast of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. India’s action was legal under Article 246 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The Chinese, however, were acting in contravention of international law.
This is not an isolated incident, Anushka says.
“More recently, alarms have again been sounded in India about the potential docking and port call of another Chinese “comprehensive research and survey ship,” the Xiang Yang Hong 03, in Malé, the Maldives. The key source of concern is the ability of such a survey ship, while purportedly conducting peaceful research and maritime tracking activities in the Indian Ocean region (IOR), to map the ocean’s seabed and study maritime currents and oceanographic trends.”
Clearly, this collected information can be utilised for military purposes. Anushka says:
“Moreover, Chinese vessels have a history of “going dark,” which refers to their crew turning off the vessels’ automatic identification system transponders. This can enable the vessels to conduct military activities without being identified or located, especially in continental shelf areas that lie beyond the EEZs of coastal states. Three years ago, around January 11, 2021, the same vessel that will soon dock in the Maldives, the Xiang Yang Hong 03, was intercepted by the Indonesian Coast Guard in its EEZ after the vessel had “gone dark.” The development came a month after an Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) resembling the Chinese Sea Wing (Haiyi) UUV was discovered close to the waters near the Indonesian coast, where there are two critical maritime chokepoints, the Sunda and Lombok straits.”
It is not just about the docking of this vessel; it is also about the proximity of the new Maldivian President, Mohammed Muizu, to China. New Delhi has not launched any formal protest, but these developments in the Indian Ocean Region cannot be taken lightly by India.
Read Anushka’s piece here.
Forget Trump, Biden Has A Bigger Problem — A West Asia Conflagration
An estimated 25,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza following Israel's retaliatory war against Hamas after their October 7 rocket attack in Israeli territory. How many more deaths will happen before the conflict is resolved? Takshashila’s Sachin Kalbag feels that the war, instead of being contained, can spread to other areas of the politically sensitive West Asia region. This, more than the rampaging Donald Trump, is US President Joe Biden’s big worry.
Sachin writes:
The White House has more or less given up convincing Israel to go slow on its war against Hamas in which an estimated 25,000 Palestinians have died since October 2023. Since then, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked American facilities in the region more than 160 times. Hezbollah, also an Iran-funded militia group in Lebanon and much better equipped than Hamas, has been attacking Israel from the north. In just 24 hours, this past Monday, Hezbollah launched 13 attacks on specific targets in northern Israel. The Houthis in Yemen have repeatedly attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea, including an Indian chemical tanker named MV Chem Pluto on December 23. As a result of these attacks, global trade has been significantly impacted, and shipping firms have had to use alternative routes that are not only expensive, but make their vessels reach their destinations cripplingly late.
American Middle East policy has not exactly exuded confidence since the days of George W Bush as president, and it continues well into the last year of Joe Biden’s term.
Says Sachin:
“The American President’s job is never easy, but Biden is currently facing the Oval Office’s biggest crisis since September 11, 2001. It is also a dilemma. In the larger context of the conflict, losing three soldiers can be emotionally overwhelming, but it pales in comparison with the number of civilian casualties. But American voters would want vengeance for the three, not the 25,000 dead in Gaza. In fact, they have already begun demanding it, and if they don’t get it or do not see evidence of any action, they will show their resentment on election day on the first Tuesday of this November.”
You can read Sachin’s op-ed here.
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A New Paper on XI Jinping’s Strategic Initiatives
The head of Takshashila’s Indo-Pacific Programme, Manoj Kewalramani, has a new paper that discusses Chinese President Xi Jinping’s flagship global initiatives’ normative implications for the world order. It argues that the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), which are key pillars of China’s proposal to build a community of common destiny for mankind, are driven by Beijing’s desire to cultivate authority in the international system.
Manoj looks at the speeches by Chinese leaders, their policy documents, the media and analytical discourse in China, along with policy decisions. His paper provides an assessment of the Chinese leadership’s worldview. It places the launch of GDI, GSI and GCI within this context before detailing the elements of each initiative and offering a critical analysis. It concludes that through GDI, GSI and GCI, the Chinese leadership hopes to shape an external environment that not only ensures regime security but is also favourable to China’s development and security interests.
In doing so, Manoj asserts, China is reshaping key norms of global governance towards a fundamentally illiberal direction.
You can read his in-depth work here.
Takshashila Announces a New Fellowship on Tech Geopolitics
The Network for Advanced Study of Technology Geopolitics (NAST) aims to build high-quality scholarship in India at the intersection of technology and geopolitics. The aim is to create a cross-disciplinary community of scholars and a body of knowledge that will inform policy, strategy, economics, technology and society.
With that in mind, the NAST Fellowship offers opportunities for analysts and scholars to work under the co-guidance of foremost experts in international relations, emerging technologies and governance and work towards a publication in the leading journals and reviews in these fields.
This one-year-long fellowship includes a two-day conference/workshop in Bengaluru. In addition, a cash prize of ₹ 1 lakh will be awarded to the three best papers determined by the jury.
You can find all the details of this exciting new programme here.
Wait, There’s More!
Milan Vaishnav, Senior Fellow and Director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, hosts a successful and interesting policy podcast called The Grand Tamasha, and in his recent episode, his guest was Takshashila Deputy Director Pranay Kotasthane, whose book When The Chips Are Down (co-authored with Abhiram Manchi) is making waves in the policy publishing world.
Pranay and Milan discuss the history of technology, the importance of semiconductors at the current geopolitical crossroads, and how the world will balance national security interests with rapid technological change. Plus, the two discuss India’s most recent attempt to build a semiconductor ecosystem and the policy missteps that bedevilled past efforts.
Listen to their fascinating conversation here.
In common discourse, we talk of the Founding Fathers of the Constitution. But did you know a few phenomenal women played a pivotal role in the framing of this document? Who were they? What were their contributions? Author and academic Dr Achyut Chetan spoke on his book ‘The Founding Mothers of the Indian Republic’ in his Republic Day address. You can watch his talk here.
That’s all from us this week. See you next and take care.