No Strait Answers to the Taiwan Question
Sometime during his presidency, then Taiwanese head of state Chen Shui-bian often said, “The majority of Taiwan people cannot accept Taiwan becoming a second Hong Kong, nor can we accept Taiwan becoming a local government of the People's Republic of China or a Special Administrative Region of China.”
Chen was, by all accounts, a contentious President of Taiwan and was under a bribery cloud on more than one occasion (he would later be jailed for bribery), but there was no doubting his ability to strike a chord with his voters over the political status of Taiwan.
In his 2000 inauguration speech, Chen promised the People’s Republic of China that as long as Beijing did not intend to use military force against Taiwan, he would not declare independence, change the name of the country to "Republic of Taiwan", push for the inclusion of "special state-to-state relations" in the Constitution, or promote a referendum on independence. In addition, he pledged not to abolish the National Unification Council.
All that changed just two years later when, in August 2002, frustrated by a lack of reciprocation from the PRC, he described the relationship as "one country on each side" and initiated a referendum on cross-strait relations in 2004, returning to a more confrontational stance.
Well, it’s been 20 years since then, and not much has changed about the status of China in Beijing’s eyes. In fact, as Anushka Saxena points out in her latest discussion document,
“The Taiwan question, referring to the status of the island of Taiwan or ‘Republic of China’ (ROC), has been a source of political and geopolitical contestation since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. The PRC has argued that Taiwan is part of ‘One China’ and that cross-Straits “reunification” is a domestic issue of the PRC.”
She also reminds us that at the multilateral level, the Taiwan question has remained unaddressed, in that the status of Taiwan as a sovereign nation-state is undetermined.
“The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971, which explicitly restored the PRC to the seat representing China at the UN while expelling representatives of Chiang’s government in Taiwan, has often been cited by the CPC as the fundamental factor underpinning the international agreement that Taiwan is non-independent and an inalienable part of China.”
Anushka’s toolkit explores various realistic scenarios and how the world should respond to them.
You can read her deeply researched document here.
The Expensive-Roads-Poor-Execution Paradox
Dr Y Nithiyanandanam is a patient man. But like the millions of patient people who “lose it” on Indian highways, Nithiya did the same on January 13 this year when he was stuck at the famous — and infamous — Mahasamudram toll plaza along the Bengaluru-Chennai highway. Consummate geospatial policy expert that he is, instead of practising his cuss words at the highway officials, he began wondering whether the next-generation Global Navigation Satellite-based toll plazas will make any difference at all if the much-vaunted Fastag system has barely made a dent.
He writes in an Op-Ed for The New Indian Express:
“Easy-flowing traffic is an ideal-state scenario, but the reality is quite different. The overwhelming number of vehicles at Mahasamudram resulted in two things: one, commuters kept changing lanes thinking it will reduce wait time, with some even following an ambulance to take undue advantage of the cleared lane; and two, the officials opened up the emergency services lane meant for ambulances, fire engines and police vehicles to regular traffic. This did not ease the situation, it worsened it. Since the emergency lane did not have RFID readers to deduct money from FASTag wallets, officials photographed each vehicle as it passed using some other device. No immediate toll charges were deducted. When the tolls were levied, drivers realised that the details were made up, with a different time mentioned in the receipt than the time they actually were at the toll plaza. Neither did the officials take into consideration the time taken in the lane queue.”
Relatable? You bet!
It is not that he just cribbed about the situation. Nithiya’s well-argued piece looks at the new tech as well as its implementation challenges and possible solutions.
You can read his Op-Ed here.
Quality Over Quantity is Not Even a Debate
In his latest piece for Mint, Takshashila co-founder Narayan Ramachandran writes:
“The pillars of a developed nation rest on innovation. Innovation is not merely the clever application of “knowledge” discovered elsewhere but the ability to conduct the entire chain from basic and applied science to technology, adaptation and adoption. For this transformation to occur, we need to completely reengineer how the government, academic institutions and corporations work together. The Government will need to support basic science at a far greater level than it is doing today, and the structure of innovation will need to move out of Soviet style research institutes to co-located spaces for companies and academia to come together.”
There is no argument there — the debate of quality over quantity should not even exist. Narayan’s column makes it amply clear.
He writes:
“An underappreciated reason for the East Asian miracle is the focus on the building blocks for the quality transition. The fundamental building blocks are primary education and universal access to preventive and basic health services. The Annual State of Education Report (ASER 2023) entitled “Beyond Basics” paints both an optimistic and dismal picture. On the one hand, over 80% of eligible students are enrolled in schools and 90% of these students have a smartphone in the household. The “quantity” revolution for schools is substantially underway. On the other hand, only 25% of those surveyed in the 14–18-year age group could read a Standard II textbook in a regional language, and little more than half could read sentences in English. In this group, only 39% could measure distance using a scale if the starting point were not set to zero. Only 43% of Standard V students could read at or better than a Standard II level. Quality in school education has a long way to go still.”
Read his full piece here.
North Versus South
Over the last few weeks, there have been calls to form an economic alliance of southern states for equal resource distribution. Chief ministers from states such as Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu held demonstrations in New Delhi to express their discontent. The Karnataka chief minister claimed that the current system for distributing resources among states puts states like Karnataka at a disadvantage while favouring states in the North with uncontrolled population growth. While the states’ concerns are valid, this focus on the horizontal distribution of tax resources is misplaced. Instead, the states should advocate for an enlargement of the divisible pool by calling for a curtailment in Union cesses and surcharges.
Takshashila’s Sarthak Pradhan and Pranay Kotasthane have a new piece out in The Times of India on how this issue can be addressed rationally, and in fact, they go to the root of the problem, answering, “What should states do?”
They write:
“The states, instead of demanding a larger share from the existing divisible pool, must demand a larger divisible pool. It can be achieved if the existing cesses and surcharges are objectively accounted for in the divisible pool or if the resource-sharing ratio is increased from the current 41% to reflect the amount of responsibilities borne by the states. States should further demand that the Union gradually rationalise various cesses and surcharges it imposes. Instead of a surcharge, the existing tax slabs can be rationalised. To prevent such a liberal levy of cesses and surcharges in the future, states should constitutionally challenge the proliferation of cesses and surcharges because they are violative of federalism, a core element constituting the basic structure of the Constitution.”
You can read their piece here.
Trump and NATO
Former US President Donald Trump said at an election rally a fortnight ago that he once told a NATO leader that he would let Russian President Vladimir Putin “do whatever the hell he wants” to any NATO member that does not increase its defence spending to a minimum of 2 per cent of its GDP.
Trump, by his own admission, told the NATO ally, “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them (the Russians) to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”
Trump has no love lost for NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, because he feels that it has no relevance for the US and that the US alone pays for the protection of smaller nations against possible attacks by Russia or any of its allies without any reciprocal gesture from the Europeans.
In his latest piece on American politics, Takshashila’s Sachin Kalbag writes about why Trump’s rhetoric is dangerous to not only Europe but to the rest of the world because it ignores Russia’s expansionist policies.
Sachin writes:
“American influence over the rest of the world has diminished. It has not been able to stop Israel from killing a disproportionately high number of Palestinian civilians — 27,000 as per the latest estimate — in the war that was started following the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. China facilitated a Saudi Arabia-Iran thaw in March last year after years of bitter rivalry that had destabilised several West Asian countries such as Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. That détente was aimed at Israel and the US. American aid to Ukraine has dropped to a trickle, and will be saved only by a spending bill that will see the light of day this week. NATO is the only multilateral grouping where the US continues to be a principal mover and shaker by a wide margin, but it is also an extremely vulnerable alliance, given that Russia has not been weakened by any of the western sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine. It is this vulnerability that will become a big black hole if Trump withdraws from NATO, and it is quite likely that the rest of the world will have to pay a price.”
You can read his piece here.
How India Can Become a Drone Hub
In his latest column for The Print, Lt Gen Prakash Menon takes on the important question of drones. He writes:
“India is in the process of acquiring 31 higher-end MQ9B Predator armed drones from the United States at an approximate cost of Rs 2.5 lakh crore. The deal was announced during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US in 2023. The Navy already operates two unarmed Predator drones, which are on lease, at the Rajali naval air station in Tamil Nadu. The new acquisitions will be apportioned to the three Services with the Navy getting the majority share. Apart from the political message of reliance on the US for major weapon systems, it also signals that Atmanirbharta is not currently feasible in this class of weapon systems.”
How exactly do we go about getting our drones infra in place? If more indigenous products are going to be developed, the government will also have to increase its budget to procure the items on offer. The interim defence budget allocation and the government’s allocation for capital expenditure do not indicate any steps to meet that need. Statistical jugglery apart, when one takes inflation and changes in foreign exchange rates into account, the capital budget will fall short on the demand side. Until now, the structural problem has mostly been on the supply side.
Read Gen Menon’s piece here.
The Taiwan Task Force
Takshashila’s chief of its Indo-Pacific Programme, Manoj Kewalramani, was part of an international task force that looked at building international support for Taiwan in the wake of increasing aggression by the Chinese mainland.
Under the auspices of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jude Blanchett and Lily McElwee led an international team of China experts to deliberate on this topic. The result of their discussion was a brief that provided some framework for the subject in question.
Blanchett and McElwee write:
“Washington needs a granular understanding of why Taiwan matters to key international stakeholders, what tolerance for risk these partners are willing to bear, and what strategic narratives on Taiwan resonate with their leaders and polities. Importantly, U.S. leaders must also appreciate that their actions and statements can either strengthen or undercut efforts to forge international unity behind preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Building such a coalition is key to deterring conflict and preserving Taiwan’s space to grow as a prosperous and resilient democracy. The broader and deeper the coalition of stakeholders, the more unmistakable the signal to Beijing that it would pay a significant price for escalating pressure on Taiwan.”
You can read their output here.
Our Much-Awaited Convocation!
It’s here, and it’s happening. Takshashila’s convocation is happening in Bengaluru on February 24. Alumni from all the batches from 2012 will be present for the grand ceremony! Find out the details here.
Podcast of the Week
In her interim budget speech, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that a high-powered committee will be constituted to consider the challenges arising from "fast population growth and demographic changes". In our choice for the All Things Policy episode of the week, Takshashila’s Suman Joshi and Sarthak Pradhan delve into India's population growth trajectory, examining future challenges and exploring potential solutions.
Listen to the podcast here.
NEW FELLOWSHIP ALERT: Network for Advanced Study of Technology Geopolitics (NAST)
The Network for Advanced Study of Technology Geopolitics (NAST) offers opportunities for analysts and scholars to work under the co-guidance of foremost experts in international relations, emerging technologies and governance and work towards a publication in the leading journals and reviews in these fields. NAST is a one-year-long fellowship which is completely online and includes a two-day in-person conference/workshop in Bengaluru. In addition, a cash prize of ₹ 1 lakh will be awarded to the three best papers determined by the jury.
You can get more details of the programme and the application process here.
The First PGP Workshop Was an All-Out Success
The first Post Graduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) workshop focused on concepts and frameworks relevant to public policy. In the second, we learned how to formulate solutions for public problems.
As we enter the final term, students shifted their focus to effecting change. Policy and program practitioners spoke about attempting to bring about change in our society using various tools and working at various levels — from empowering grassroots communities to pioneering shifts in transportation policy.
At the same time, the workshop took stock of the respective capstone projects. Each day had sessions hosted by a diverse set of speakers, along with presentations and feedback from Takshashila faculty.
As the icing on the cake, the students played Nagara: The Democracy Game! This role-playing game simulates the benefits and constraints of democracy and calls for rounds of negotiations between representatives of wards, civic authorities and media.
That’s all from us this week. Take care.