Missile Defence Has Come Of Age
The first order of business for newly-appointed Prime Minister Jim Hacker in the popular book and TV series ‘Yes, Prime Minister’ is to inspect Britain’s missile defence technology at the Ministry of Defence. As soon as he enters what appears to be a control room, Hacker asks Army Chief General Howard about the nuclear missile hotline between London and Moscow. It turns out the hotline is not really hot; it is only something that officials tell journalists to give them a juicy tidbit.
In reality, the hotline is just another telephone line to Kremlin’s switchboard operator, General Howard explains, and, the chances of reaching the General Secretary are only minimal because the telephone operator may not even know English. In reality, Hacker finds out, if Russia attacks Britain, he would have to send a coded message to a nuclear-armed naval vessel, which the authorised personnel then authenticate. When the message is authenticated, the naval officers send a message to a nuclear-armed submarine, which then eventually presses the trigger. In the 1980s, you see, it took a long time to initiate nuclear Armageddon.
The world has come a long way since the 1980s, and though Iran took two weeks to retaliate against an Israeli strike against its diplomatic facility in Syria, it would have spent the entire time in planning, not executing an order. The 21st century reality of a missile and drone strikes is that it is super quick and super-efficient. More than that, though, as Nitin Pai explains in his column for Mint, missile defence technology is pretty much an evolved science, thanks to the advances made in the last decade or so.
“The wars in Ukraine and Israel-Palestine have demonstrated that missile defence has come of age. Even before Israel, with the help of the US and its allies successfully intercepted nearly all of the 320 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles that Iran launched last week, the Ukrainians had reported that they had shot down all 80 of the drones the Russians had dispatched on one New Year’s weekend. Drones are relatively easy to shoot down given their slower speeds, but countering a swarm of them is still no mean feat. Intercepting cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles gets harder given their increasing speeds, but US-made systems have shown themselves capable of doing so at high levels of effectiveness. They will get even better in the future. Missile defence has already changed the way battles are fought over land and sea. It will also influence geopolitics and strategy.”
What does all of this mean for the future of war? Nitin writes:
“With attackers having a massive fiscal advantage, they can prevail in a conflict by bleeding the defender dry. At an average cost of $250,000 per interception, Israel and its Western allies spent a minimum of $80 million in a few hours. Only rich, large countries can sustain this. Thus Ukraine and Israel depend on the United States both for the weaponry and for the money that pays for it. Kiev is in a tight spot today because it is running short of interceptors and the money it depends on Washington for. Similarly, for all its advanced capabilities, Israel’s capacity to defend itself depends on continued weapons supplies and financial support of the United States. It appears that the US forces took down over 60% of the drones and missiles that the Iranians launched towards Israel. Ergo, the country deploying missile defence has a critical dependence on the country supplying it.”
The end result of all of this tech cannot be mutually assured destruction (MAD) but the ability to “provide time and space for politics, diplomacy and statesmanship to negotiate a solution.”
Says Nitin,
“Walls, border fences, missile defence shields, surveillance technologies or strategic superiority can lull a society and its leaders into believing that the underlying problem has gone away. It surprises them when they discover that it did not. The reluctance to find political compromises is the biggest risk of impermeable missile defence.”
You can read his full column here.
Talking of the Iran-Israel attack and counterattacks, Takshashila’s Sachin Kalbag and Yusuf Unjhawala sat down for a wide-ranging chat on the various possibilities of a full conflict in the region. The new episode of All Things Policy was recorded a couple of days before Israel’s counter-attack, but the 30 minutes or so covered a spectrum of issues, including the possibility of Indian intervention or mediation. You can listen to the podcast here.
Can India navigate a regional geopolitical realignment?
While the wars in Eurasia and West Asia may seem disjointed and seeped in their own historical and political contexts, they are also interconnected in a broader sense of the emerging great power competition for the future of the world order.
In their new op-ed for NDTV, Takshashila’s head of the Indo-Pacific Programme, Manoj Kewalramani, and analyst Anushka Saxena write about a possible realignment in the region.
“Two strategic outcomes can be observed amid these recent events, they say. “First, the persistence of the war in Gaza and the emerging spillovers have exposed the limitations of American and Chinese power, particularly since the situation does not necessarily serve either's strategic interests. Second, there is a clear alignment, albeit with increasing friction, between the US and Israel. The US has been at the forefront, supporting Israel in its war against Hamas, and led its defence amid the recent Iranian strikes.”
They add,
“It is interesting to note that this effort was supported by regional actors like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan. In addition, options to coerce Iran economically are being discussed in both the European Union (EU) and the US. On the other hand, China and Russia have been critical of Israeli actions since October 2023. Amid the Iran-Israel tensions, Beijing has backed Iran and sought to preserve its tenuous effort at reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Tehran. Russia, meanwhile, has become Iran's largest military backer since 2022 and threw its diplomatic weight behind Iran's "retaliatory measures" on April 14 against Israel.”
What exactly are the implications of this? Read their full op-ed here to find out.
What about the Moscow-Beijing warmth, you ask?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to China was brief but significant. On the face of it, Lavrov was in Beijing to set the stage for an anticipated trip by President Vladimir Putin in May. To that end, he met China’s President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Amidst the usual diplomatic pleasantries, three outcomes that emerged are particularly important from India’s perspective.
First, the strategic convergences between the two administrations are evident. In his comments, Wang Yi emphasised the importance of the China-Russia relationship, calling it “irreplaceable in maintaining global strategic stability and promoting cooperation among emerging powers”.
Second, both China and Russia want to use constructs like the Global South and groups like BRICS and SCO as tools to shape a future world order that suits their interests.
And the final takeaway? Addressing the press, the Russian Foreign Minister said that the two sides “exchanged views on the prospect of forming a new security structure in Eurasia against the background of the complete stagnation and self-destruction of Euro-Atlantic mechanisms”.
Manoj Kewalramani and Amit Kumar have co-authored an op-ed that looks into these three aspects in-depth. Read their important piece in The Indian Express here.
Scholars on China and Pakistan, Unite!
We recently concluded a fantastic cohort of scholars on China and Pakistan as part our Network of Advanced Study of China (NASC) and Network of Advanced Study of Pakistan (NASP). Stoked with the high level of scholarship in those papers, Takshashila has announced its second cohort!
The NASC aims to create high-quality scholarship and knowledge of the People’s Republic of China by nurturing new generations of analysts in academia, think tanks, media, and industry. The programme aims to train and nurture a cross-disciplinary community of outstanding scholars over a period of three years and create a body of knowledge that will inform policy, strategy, economics, technology, and society. Ditto for NASP.
For Pakistan, apply here. For China, apply here. Read more about Takshashila Extraversity’s fellowships here.
We know cities are important. Get to know why!
Cities are complex. Cities are complicated. Cities can stun policymakers, and they can challenge lawmakers. Most of all, cities are home to millions, and it is here that any country’s engines of growth are conceptualised and executed. But here’s the paradox. Despite urban governance being so important, why is it that we know so little about it?
No longer!
Takshashila’s Unpacking Urban Governance is just the course you need to bridge that knowledge gap. It is a six-week live online certificate course that seeks to make sense of the systems, practices, and challenges of urban governance in India. It will unpack the institutions, actors, and processes driving urban governance, examine the multiple governance challenges faced by Indian cities, and explore pathways for making our cities work better.
The course will provide an introductory understanding of the key themes of urban governance, like urban institutions, urban planning, municipal finance, civic participation, and governance reforms. The course modules will be structured around intuitive questions like:
Who governs the city? Are Indian cities really planned?
What are the ways in which urban development is financed?
Can citizens meaningfully participate in urban governance?
How can India’s urban governance challenges be addressed?
At the end of the course, Takshashila Institution will issue a Certificate of Achievement to participants who successfully complete the course requirements.
For more details, head onto this page. To apply, click here.
The deep wisdom of the Mahabharata, and what it tells us
Wing Commander Amit Gaur writes in his illuminating article:
“When endeavouring to revitalise India's ancient strategic culture preceding Arthashastra, one inevitably grapples with the task of discerning between widely accepted historical frameworks and the narrative form of sacred Indian Itihasa[1]. This challenge is compounded by the question of myth and reality within these narratives. Lastly, any lessons from the past, regardless of their origin, must demonstrate their relevance for the present era and same in respect of ancient Indian texts too, requires thorough analysis.”
He says the two epics forming the core of Indian Itihasa are Ramayana and Mahabharata.
“Both are the most pervasive text in popular imagination of Indian civilisation. The Ramayana unfolds as a tightly woven narrative, blending palace intrigue, exile and war seamlessly. In contrast, the Mahabharata, encompasses a myriad of stories, dramas and moral teachings. Each moral dilemma, even that which is depicted in sub plots or Upakhyanas is meticulously explored, interwoven with the overarching plot in a frame story format.”
But why should we study the Mahabharata? There could be thousands of reasons, but a compelling one is this, writes Amit:
“Unlike Arthashastra or other treatises on statecraft or warfare, Mahabharata is not a prescriptive text. It hosts a multitude of characters and plots. Sometimes these characters converge in their approach, sometimes diverge; they either challenge each other or reconcile. Duels in Mahabharata are waged not merely between these characters fighting for supremacy but also between ever evolving choices the characters have to make. There are duels between approaches seeking active participation and those favouring neutrality; duels between personal gain and larger societal benefits; duels between the ideas of war as a solution and of war being a problem itself.”
Read his full piece here.
Wait, there’s more!
Pranay Kotasthane and Anupam Manur celebrated the launch of their new bestseller with fellow writer and illustrator Khyati Pathak, ‘We, The Citizens’ at Bengaluru’s Atta Galatta, the Indian language bookstore, literature space and venue for events. Some glimpses here.
That’s all from us this week. Take care.