India Needs 20 Million Jobs A Year. Here’s How To Create Them
The story goes that for a TV show about “nothing”, Seinfeld can give you a reference to practically any situation of human existence. The public policy equivalents of Seinfeld are Yes, Minister and Yes, Prime Minister.
In Episode Three (‘The Economy Drive’) of Season One, Jim Hacker, the minister, expects his permanent secretary, Sir Humphrey Appleby, to cut jobs in his department. Sir Humphrey explains that theirs is actually a small department. This is the brief exchange:
Hacker: How many people do we have in this department?
Sir Humphrey: Ummm... well, we're very small...
Hacker: Two, maybe three thousand?
Sir Humphrey: About twenty-three thousand to be precise.
Hacker: TWENTY-THREE THOUSAND! In the department of administrative affairs, twenty-three thousand administrators just to administer the other administrators! We need to do a time-and-motion study, see who we can get rid of.
Sir Humphrey: Ah, well, we did one of those last year.
Hacker: And what were the results?
Sir Humphrey: It turned out that we needed another five hundred people.
Well, you cannot fault Sir Humphrey — a quintessential government servant if ever there was one — for creating new jobs when you need to cut down on wasteful expenditure. India cannot do that. We cannot be creating ghost jobs just to ensure that we need party manifesto targets.
How do we do that, then? Takshashila director Nitin Pai, in his latest column for Mint, has a point of view. It’s a no-brainer that high economic growth is the only driver of jobs. Truth is, it is only the necessary condition, not the sufficient one. For that to happen, we need a concerted programme to boost employment, and that too, without, as Jim Hacker pointed out to Sir Humphrey, without creating additional wasteful government and military jobs.
Nitin has a four-pronged approach: Create new well-planned, sustainable cities, attract large-scale manufacturing, get more women in the workforce, and champion globalisation with free trade and movement of people.
“These are just some examples of the kind of thinking we need to address the jobs challenge. So far growth, migration and democracy have helped India avoid the kind of social unrest that accompanies widespread unemployment. They are limits to these buffers and it is best that we don’t take them for granted. The government has its job cut out.”
You can read his full column for Mint here.
Quick! India Needs A Critical Technology Policy
Truth be told, India has taken giant strides in several emerging technologies in the last decade or so, be it artificial intelligence, bioengineering, quantum computing, space tech, and cybersecurity. So, does India have a national policy on critical and emerging tech (CET)? Sadly, no. In his latest discussion document, Takshashila’s Saurabh Todi proposes a step-by-step framework to visualise the development of a CET as a dynamic process, determine how aspects of the technology life cycle should be assessed for prioritisation, and suggest what policy actions the government should take regarding CETs. His paper illustrates the proposed framework through the example of mRNA vaccine technology and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Simply put, Saurabh writes,
“The concept of CET is often used in the context of defence, economic development, and national interest. The classification of what is critical and what is not depends on the country's security environment, so different countries may see different technologies as critical.”
But the truth is that several countries worldwide have passed legislation, regulations, and guidelines on CETs. These include the Critical And Emerging Technologies List released by the National Science and Technology Council of the United States and the Science and Technology Framework released by the United Kingdom. The European Union has also recently recommended bloc-level risk assessment for identified critical technologies, and Japan has identified several critical technologies that it considers essential for its economic security. In contrast, India neither has a comprehensive list of CET technologies that are considered CETs nor a publicly available strategy to guide regulators and policymakers. This may lead to policy incoherence or inefficient allocation of resources when dealing with CETs.
It is quite enlightening to read Saurabh’s paper because it provides a clear framework for India’s approach to CETs.
Read the full document here.
Explained: China’s Grey-Zone Tactics Against Taiwan
China’s claim over Taiwan is no secret. In fact, every few weeks, China’s military exercises near Taiwanese territory ring alarm bells not only in the region but everywhere else around the world. It is important, therefore, to understand China’s tactics in the region. Anushka Saxena, in her explainer for The Hindu, does just that.
She writes:
“In its ‘carrots and sticks’ approach towards Taiwan, Beijing deploys sticks for the DPP and carrots for its primary opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). Well known for its relatively pro-mainland views, the KMT continues to engage with Communist Party (CPC) officials, even as any meaningful communication between the DPP and the CPC has stalled since Ms. Tsai Ing-wen became President of Taiwan in 2016. DPP legislators have often described these engagements as KMT’s “collusion” with the CPC. In fact, KMT officials have, in the past, been investigated by the Tsai administration under the ‘anti-infiltration law’ after their visits to China.”
That’s not all.
“To build a favourable image for itself, Beijing often deploys narratives within Taiwanese territory that thrust ideological choices upon its citizens. For example, sometime on May 25, just under a week after Mr. Lai assumed office, internet users in Taiwan observed a Youtube video of a Chinese citizen operating a drone to drop cardboard boxes on Kinmen island. When investigated by the Kinmen Defence Command on May 26, the boxes unveiled fliers written in simplified Chinese, stating “Both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China, one Chinese nation. Taiwan independence is a dead end. Lai’s Taiwan independence is a dead end.” Some other fliers warned, “Don’t sacrifice your life for Taiwan independence, do you understand?”
Read her full piece here.
Meanwhile, Chinese armed forces have been upgrading. India must keep up, recommends Anushka in her other piece for The Indian Express.
“In an era where the Information Age is enabling revolution in military affairs (RMA), the PLA is adapting to new modes and methods of warfighting. Integrating these is key to the PLA’s goal of becoming a “world-class force” by 2049. Over the next few years, it is only likely that the WTC will double down on such measures, creating a joint force capable of conducting successful combat operations. India, then, must continue to observe developments in the WTC and direct its efforts towards countering them.”
Read her full piece here.
The Private Sector Boom In Space Is Coming
As the commercial space sector in India germinates, the country’s most powerful launch vehicle, the Launch Vehicle Mark-III (LVM3), will soon be produced by the private sector, while ISRO will focus on pioneering endeavours in deep space exploration and cutting-edge research. The US Space Shuttle’s retirement created an opportunity: When the US retired the Space Shuttle, NASA had no ready substitute spacecraft. It relied on the Russian Soyuz to transport American astronauts to the ISS and back. After a nine-year hiatus, the next crewed orbital launch from US soil was that of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft atop the private company’s Falcon 9 rocket.
India has a similar opportunity, writes Takshashila’s Ashwin Prasad:
“India has also undertaken similar reforms since 2020 to reap the benefits of private sector participation in space. The new policy landscape seeks to unburden ISRO of routine production and operational tasks. This includes making the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) and the LVM3. The plan is underway. Production orders have been placed with industry consortiums for PSLVs. SSLV technology will also be transferred to private manufacturers. Most recently, the private sector has been invited to build the LVM3.”
Ashwin’s piece is a short, deep dive into what favourable policy can do to a sector. Read his full piece in Mint.
The Agnipath Scheme Needs A Relook
The future of the Agnipath scheme is a pressing concern for the new government at the Centre. The narrative that this scheme dampened the NDA’s prospects gained momentum during the election campaign. The spokesperson of the JD(U), a key NDA partner, has publicly stated that the scheme upset some sections and needs to be modified. In his latest article for The Indian Express, Takshashila Deputy Director Pranay Kotasthane proposes the “inverse induction model” to make Agnipath 2.0 meet its operational, fiscal and political objectives.
It is not a new idea. Pranay and Lt Gen Prakash Menon proposed it in 2019 (you can read about it here).
Pranay writes:
“The name implies that the recruitment of Agniveers first happens through the Central and State Armed Police Forces (CAPF/SAPF) and not the Indian armed forces directly. These new CAPF recruits are then inducted into the Indian armed forces for a colour service of seven years. The Indian armed forces train the incoming personnel per their standards for one year, after which they serve for six years. After the Agniveer term ends, the recruit is sent back to the parent CAPF.”
He adds:
“The proposed inverse induction model can effectively address the three main objections to the Agnipath scheme. First, retaining the soldiers in the national security system alleviates the concerns of those disheartened by the exit from armed forces after four years of gruelling service. Second, there are likely to be significant positive effects — the recruiting paramilitary organisations’ combat capabilities will improve due to the training of Agniveers by the armed forces. It will also build capacity in the severely understaffed state armed police forces. Third, extending the service term to seven years can also address the operational concerns of the armed forces as a shorter service term and high turnover are believed by some to reduce military effectiveness.”
Read his full piece here.
The Road To 2047 Won’t Be Easy, But…
If India has to achieve its ambition of becoming a “developed country” by 2047 — a stated goal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi — what exactly should be our roadmap? In an illuminating op-ed for Hindustan Times, Takshashila Councillor M Govinda Rao writes about just that. No one said it’s going to be easy. He says,
“Leapfrogging from being a low middle-income economy to becoming a developed country in the next 25 years requires raising the country’s per capita income by more than five times, from $2,600 to $10,205. This effectively translates into a per capita income growth at 7.5% per year and an aggregate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 9%.”
Phew! That data point alone should bring some beads of sweat to our foreheads. It is not impossible, though. No country’s rise to the top has been easy. Why should India’s be any different?
To summarise his prescription:
“One, productive jobs must be created in both manufacturing and service sectors. Two, there has to be a greater thrust on exports and avoiding protectionism. Three, while the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) is a landmark reform, it is important to ensure that the insolvency resolution process is timely, effective, and reasonable. The three farm legislations to provide flexibility to the farmers to sell their products anywhere, which were later withdrawn in the face of protests by the farmers, exemplify much required but failed reforms.”
Read Mr Rao’s full piece here.
Wait, There’s More!
In her blog post for Takshashila, Vanshika Saraf writes about how, with the recent media frenzy on China planning to invade Taiwan by 2027, it is timely to enquire how much of an outsized role Taiwan plays in Tokyo’s foreign policy.
“In line with the 1972 Japan-China Joint Communique, Japan has maintained working relations with Taiwan on a non-governmental basis. It has not taken positions on the issue of sovereignty but emphasized "peace and stability" in the strait, calling it an ‘indispensable element for the security and prosperity of the international community’.”
Read her piece here.
All Things Policy Podcast Episode Of The Week
Indian politics has re-entered the coalition era with the new government under PM Narendra Modi being sworn in last week. Given that coalition governments tend to witness greater political bargaining and deliberation, the fate of critical legislative reforms such as one nation one election (ONOE), delimitation of constituencies, women’s reservation in Parliament and assemblies, etc., hangs in the balance.
In our favourite ATP episode of the week, Saurabh Todi and Shrikrishna Upadhyaya reflect on the issue of legislative reforms and argue that this is the right juncture for micro-level legislative reforms such as setting up a parliamentary research service, mandatory examination of bills by standing committees, overhauling legislative councils (Vidhan Parishads), and compulsory division of votes.
Listen to the episode here.
Upcoming Event: Organise For Change
That’s all from us this week. Take care.