A missed bus in 1971 or the microchip war in 2024, who did it better?
One day, during the 1971 World Table Tennis championship in Nagoya, Japan, American athlete Glenn Cowan missed his team bus following practice. He decided to board the Chinese team bus, an act that changed the course of US-China relations. Seeing an American in the bus, Chinese star Zhuang Zedong came forward and offered him a depiction of the Huangshan Mountains on a piece of silk cloth.
When they exited the bus, a horde of photographers captured this image for eternity. Neither player knew this at the time they shook hands, but it was the beginning of something big.
Two days later, the US team received an official invitation to travel to China and play exhibition matches against the Chinese team. The United States accepted the invitation, and everyone rushed to make arrangements. According to the National Museum of American Diplomacy, the US State Department’s consular officials in Japan, in advance of the team’s onward journey to China, made a simple but profound change to their passports. On the page warning travellers of legal penalties “for travel to or in Communist-controlled portions” of the listed countries, the officials simply took a black marker and carefully crossed out “China.”
The exchange and promotion of these matches helped people in each country recognise the humanity in the people of the other country, and it paved the way for then-US President Richard Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972.
This became known as Ping Pong Diplomacy and is essential reading for anyone even remotely interested in understanding the relations between Washington and Beijing.
If you tell this fascinating story to young people reading headlines of the chip wars between the United States and China, however, they just might do a double take. The acerbic exchanges between the two countries are the staple of contemporary reporting in political, business and technology pages of newspapers. Takshashila’s own Pranay Kotashtane has co-authored a book on this and its implications for India, and globally, this is one of the most followed stories for a while.
As Takshashila co-founder and director Nitin Pai says in his latest column for Mint,
“Why has geopolitics become obsessed with semiconductors? It is because chips are the most important physical manifestation of the currency of power in the Information Age. Data, algorithms and intellectual property are abstract, only hardware and people are palpable. Computers, networks, vehicles, equipment and armaments are also physical manifestations, but chips are in everything and everything depends on chips. They are zero-sum goods in a massively non-zero sum economy, so controlling them is seen as a way to remain powerful in this era. Whereas power once came from controlling land, sea routes, gunpowder, factories and nuclear weapons, it now comes from chips. At least in the eyes of world leaders and top policymakers.”
Nitin’s contention is that Washington’s actions set China back at least five but potentially more than ten years.
“Although Huawei has demonstrated 7nm microprocessors and GPUs in recent months made with pre-sanctions Western equipment, the Chinese industry will at best be capable of 14nm chips this year, when the US is at 2nm and about four generations ahead,” he writes.
The Washington-Beijing trade war will continue to remain of the top stories of the year. Nitin lays the ground work for what lies ahead in his excellent column that you can read here.
China’s dominance of the EV market and what it means to us
Let’s get some contextual numbers out of the way first. Today, 60% of all electric vehicles (EVs) sold in the world are sold in China. Nearly 40% of new car sales in China are now EVs, and more than half of the world’s EV batteries are made in China. The United States is a distant second with about 15% market share.
During the last quarter of 2023, BYD, the largest Chinese manufacturer of EV batteries, overtook Tesla in total global EV sales, selling 526,000 battery-only vehicles (BEV). For the whole year, the Shenzhen-based BYD sold 3 million new energy vehicles, which includes BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). BYD-manufactured buses and taxis already operate in cities as diverse as London, Santiago, Helsinki, Hong Kong and Mexico City.
BYD now sells ten models cheaper than the entry-level Tesla 3 model. It uses Lithium-Iron Phosphate (LFP) technology for its batteries versus Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) batteries initially chosen by many Western manufacturers. Except for some high-end performance EVs, most manufacturers are now switching to LFP where BYD holds a commanding lead in experience and expertise.
Takshashila co-founder Narayan Ramachandran has prefaced his excellent piece on China’s dominance using these numbers, and he goes onto explain why they mean what they mean.
He writes in his latest column for Mint:
“… as China dominates the global EV industry, an increase in the frictions associated with the trade of EVs is likely. Unlike the battle for advanced semi-conductor chips and other critical technologies, this appears to be an old-fashioned trade battle between the West and China, where the upstarts have upstaged the incumbents from US, Japan and Germany. The productions cycle for a new model from Chinese manufacturers like BYD, Nio and XPeng is 36 months, a full 12 months shorter than most western manufacturers. The Chinese lead in LFP technology also grants both time and cost advantages. And the large home market allows for significant economies of scale in production. This combination keeps the cost and quality of Chinese EVs very competitive and difficult to beat.”
You can read his column here.
What women should be given… for their naval submarine duty
The Navy is set to induct women in submarines, but these deployments come with specific crewing, bunking, and privacy issues that must be addressed. In an important column for The Print, Lt Gen Dr Prakash Menon writes about the specific concerns women will face inside the underwater vessel and what the Indian Navy must do to address them.
He elaborates on two primary issues that need immediate attention: Crew and Bunk Management, and Privacy and Health.
“Crew and bunk management in submarines are interconnected issues. The essence of the matter is that if genders are segregated, relieving a female crew member with someone of the desired qualification, rank, and gender would be extremely difficult due to the limited pool of available women, especially during the transitional stage to mixed-gender crewing. This issue is further complicated by the fact that service is voluntary, making it unfeasible to assess the availability of female volunteers over foreseeable deployment periods in advance.”
On Privacy and Health, Gen Menon writes:
“Bunking and personal ablutions are two main areas of concern when it comes to privacy. It is possible to design future submarines for mixed accommodation, wherein all submariners are allocated individual bunks with privacy curtains. There would also be a need to specify a minimum attire policy (for example, shorts and t-shirts) to be worn at all times, including while sleeping, for the entire crew. In the extremely confined space of the submarine environment, mutual understanding and respect for each other’s privacy are cultural necessities that must be instilled. Prohibitions on socialising and proximate interpersonal relationships have to be strictly enforced, as is already being done on board surface ships.”
So, how do we address these issues in a manner that everyone is comfortable and yet achieves military efficiencies?
For starters, these challenges can be overcome, Gen Menon writes:
“In many navies, women, both in officer and enlisted ranks, have been serving on submarines for more than three decades. Norway led the way in 1985 and had the first woman submarine captain in 1995. Sweden, Australia, and Spain followed in the 1990s; Canada and Germany in the 2000s; the US, UK, and France in the 2010s; and Japan and South Korea inducted women in 2018 and 2023, respectively. India decided to do so in 2023 and is in the process of evolving an induction plan. There is plenty to learn from the experience of other navies, and for sure, the Indian Navy will imbibe knowledge in this sphere and integrate it into the Indian cultural context.”
You can read his full column here.
What’s Dr Nithiya been up to this week? The answer will both shock and fascinate you
When Takshashila’s professor of geospatial tech, Dr Nithiyanandanam Yogeswaran, is not trying to solve India’s highway traffic issues, he uses his advanced knowledge of geospatial technology to uncover what is happening along the Line of Actual Control or, as he did this week, find beauty in satellite imagery. His work is simultaneously fascinating and awe-inspiring.
As he writes in his short but charming piece on OpenTakshashila:
Did you know that satellite images aren't just cool to look at but also packed with valuable information? Take multi-spectral imagery, for example. It captures wavelengths beyond our eyes, revealing hidden details about vegetation, settlement growth, water conditions, and more! Check out this false-color composite* showcasing Pakistan's stunning Indus River Delta+! The vibrant red hues highlight the density and health of vegetation, offering a unique perspective compared to traditional images. Satellite imagery isn't just about maps—it's about uncovering the beauty and complexity of our world from above!
If you look at the images, you’d agree!
Or, read his latest investigation of what China is up to on its side of the LAC. Significant recent developments have occurred in two border settlements, one in Zone A (an unnamed village) and the other in Zone B (Migyitun, Longju, and Luowa). Structures with dual purposes are being constructed in Zone A on the boundary line specified by the Survey of India (SOI). Since 1950, Zone B, a contested area, has experienced numerous construction projects, with a notable one in 2020, as indicated by the Pentagon. Additionally, several more construction projects have occurred in the last three years.
That was the TL;DR. What about the full story?
Nithiya has put his heart and soul into finding out what could easily be a front page story in a national newspaper about two zones in the Tibet Autonomous Region bordering Arunachal Pradesh where China is making immense investment in border settlements.
He writes:
“This article delves into a comprehensive analysis of two specific locations, Zone A and Zone B, in the following maps, where the Chinese border dual-purpose settlements are evident around the established boundary lines. Utilizing advanced remote sensing algorithms, we initially mapped these areas. Subsequently, we referred to high-resolution satellite imagery to conduct an in-depth study. Temporal satellite images played an essential role in uncovering the direction and growth of settlement expansion, the types of developments, and the presence and features of military infrastructure. This work aims to track and comprehend the changes and growth patterns over time through satellite imagery, providing a distinct perspective on the dynamics at these crucial border areas.”
You can read his full investigation here, and while you are at it, subscribe to his monthly geospatial newsletter as well!
The Hidden Dangers in China’s GDP Numbers
Takshashila’s Amit Kumar delves into what could be some of the most important data points for the year — China’s GDP numbers. For his latest piece for Foreign Policy magazine, Amit writes:
“China’s recently announced GDP target for 2024 remains unchanged from last year, at 5 percent. But even if the country hits that number, its economic problems run deep. In January, China published economic data for the last quarter of 2023 which put its annual GDP growth rate at 5.2 percent, beating the government target. Yet, to put things in perspective, China’s real GDP growth rate from 2011 to 2019 averaged 7.3 percent while 2001-10 saw average growth of 10.5 percent.”
Why is this important? Because, “the wider trends of the Chinese economy suggest a worrying state of affairs.” To begin with, this was the first time since 2010 that China’s real GDP growth rate exceeded its nominal GDP growth rate (4.8 per cent).
Amit writes:
“Usually, the nominal growth rate should be higher than the real growth rate. But in a deflationary year, the real growth rate can give a distorted picture, because deflation or negative inflation amplifies the real numbers. Thus, the fact that China’s real GDP number exceeded its nominal number indicates that Beijing’s gross value of output in real terms was amplified thanks to negative inflation, i.e. a general decrease in the prices of goods and services. If not for deflation, China’s real GDP growth in 2023 would have been even lower and would have certainly missed the national target of 5 percent.”
You can read his analysis here.
China wants to change the way it studies party history
In February, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) released regulations governing the study of the Party's history. According to Chinese media, the document serves as the CPC’s “core internal guideline” for organising and implementing study programmes about the Party’s history, with the goal of “strengthening understanding, conviction, integrity, and diligence”.
In their piece for 9Dashline, Takshashila’s head of the Indo-Pacific Program, Manoj Kewalramani, and research analyst Rakshith Shetty write that the culture of recorded written history is important in Chinese politics.
“Throughout Chinese history,” they say, “it has been wielded as a tool for political legitimacy and continuity, characterising the ruling regime as the rightful successor of earlier dynasties.”
They feel that the recent regulations on history education must be viewed in light of their broader scope.
“These regulations are not merely about learning history; they navigate the complex interplay between history and various facets of contemporary life, including politics, academia, research, and propaganda. Like previous regulations, the current regulation seeks to cultivate ideological conformity not just within the Party but across society at large. It is designed to ensure that everyone — from Party members to Chinese citizens — adheres to a unified understanding of history that aligns with the Party's narrative and bolsters the legitimacy of the CPC and its core leader, Xi Jinping.”
You can get a better understanding of what exactly is going on, and what is to be expected, in their full column here.
Is Joe Biden old? He is, and he better face the truth
For a country obsessed with age and looks over wisdom and tenacity, the US faces a tough choice this November when it votes to elect the next President. On ballot will be 82-year-old Joe Biden and 78-year-old Donald Trump. To be sure, this year, the American electorate has been speaking about nothing else about the poll except Biden’s and Trump’s age. A third, independent candidate Robert F Kennedy, Jr is 73.
“The race to the White House this year is virtually a geriatric marathon,” writes Sachin Kalbag in his latest fortnightly column for The Free Press Journal.
Sachin feels that even though Biden has hit back at his ageist critics, the reason for the disillusionment is not his performance, but perception.
“Biden’s consistent goofs and the recent confidential report prepared by US Special Counsel Robert Hur wherein the President is described as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” have worsened his image, notwithstanding the SOTU speech. At the centre of the Hur controversy is the fact that if you read the 250-plus-page transcript, you’d never realise that Biden occasionally slurs or has problems with memory (he once publicly mentioned he spoke to a European leader who, in fact, had died many years earlier).”
You can read his full piece here.
AI and Governance: Takshashila’s Comprehensive Analyses
The Takshashila Institution organised a conference on February 14, 2024, to understand Artificial Intelligence's impact and governance. Takshashila's in-house scholars, Satya S Sahu, Shrikrishna Upadhyaya, Sridhar Krishna, Bharat Sharma, Saurabh Todi and Bharath Reddy, presented papers covering diverse themes related to Artificial Intelligence. Shambhavi Naik chaired the conference.
For easy access, we have created a compendium of the four working papers presented at the conference.
In the first paper, Satya S Sahu and Shrikrishna Upadhyaya comprehensively analyse India's AI regulatory framework, emphasising the diverse policies, frameworks, and guidelines that contribute to its structure. They also analyse AI regulations in various jurisdictions, such as the US, UK, EU, and China, and identify convergent and divergent trends.
In his paper, Sridhar Krishna assesses the legitimacy of concerns about Artificial Intelligence displacing jobs on a large scale. After reviewing relevant literature on the subject, he advocates for proactive measures, suggesting that preparing for the future involves staying ahead of the AI wave.
Bharat Sharma and Saurabh Todi analyse the current global governance landscape concerning key technologies and identify valuable lessons applicable to the governance of artificial intelligence.
In the concluding paper, Bharath Reddy explores how Artificial Intelligence can augment state capacity. The paper breaks down government processes and assesses them based on transaction volume and discretion.
To download all the papers, head here!
Why have cross-strait relations become more dynamic and volatile?
Takshashila’s Anushka Saxena is on a mission to find why. She writes in her latest piece for Modern Diplomacy, “Trends from this past decade indicate that cross-Straits dynamics are being shaped not just by unpredictable trigger events, but by four persistent and fundamental factors – political changes brought about by the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) since 2016, a strengthening sense of social identity in the Taiwanese population, increasing proximity between Taiwan and the US, and increasing Chinese power and assertiveness under Xi Jinping.”
She enumerates four reasons why this is happening, and it is worthwhile to spend some time understanding all four.
As the world looks to the Taiwan Straits and the continually evolving policies and tactics of the stakeholders involved, there is a consensus emerging that any conflict in the region will have drastic global economic and humanitarian implications.
You can read her full piece here.
Wait, there’s more!
Our favourite All Things Policy podcast of the week is this riveting conversation between Rakshith Shetty and Dr Gunjan Singh of the Jindal Global Law School on China’s space programme.
The roots of China’s space ambitions go back to 1957 when the Soviet Union successfully launched the world’s first artificial satellite, Sputnik-1. That year, Chairman Mao Zedong declared China would also launch its own satellite. With the help of Soviet technology and scientists such as Qian Xuesen, who studied and initially worked in the United States but was deported for allegedly being a communist sympathiser, the country established its space programme. In July 1964, China took its first official step into space, launching and recovering an experimental biological rocket carrying white mice.
This episode explores China’s historical roots to future ambitions. Join the panellists here.
Our next GCPP cohort will soon get ready, and applications are open. Click here to apply! Our Post-graduate Programme AMA event happened last Friday. The GCPP AMA is happening soon. Be sure you are there!
Takshashila’s Manoj Kewalramani will chat with writer and journalist Shastri Ramachandran, the author of ‘Beyond Binaries: The World of India and China’ at the Bangalore International Centre. The discussion will take place on April 16. For more details, hear on here.
That’s all from us this week. Take care.