A Holmes-ian Investigation of India's Climate Change Diplomacy...
A Holmes-ian Investigation of India's Climate Change Diplomacy...
A well-trained foxhound. This is the best description that Dr. Watson can muster up when he witnesses Sherlock Holmes examining a clue in the classic 1887 novel, A Study in Scarlet. He observes:
“As he spoke, he whipped a tape measure and a large round magnifying glass from his pocket. With these two implements he trotted noiselessly about the room, sometimes stopping, occasionally kneeling, and once lying flat upon his face... As I watched him I was irresistibly reminded of a pure-blooded well-trained foxhound as it dashes backwards and forwards through the covert, whining in its eagerness, until it comes across the lost scent. For twenty minutes or more he continued his researches, measuring with the most exact care the distance between marks which were entirely invisible to me, and occasionally applying his tape to the walls in an equally incomprehensible manner.”
It was this novel that first introduced the world to Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s intrepid, tormented (and beloved) protagonist, Sherlock Holmes. The novel was also the first work of fiction to use the magnifying glass as a tool for investigation (as noted by the Smithsonian Magazine).
It seems reasonable to surmise that Takshashila’s Rakshith Shetty must also possess a Holmes-ian magnifying glass. After all, he has carefully examined a number of clues and successfully landed on seven themes that illustrate how Chinese analysts view India’s climate change diplomacy.
He reveals that Chinese analysts see a number of stark similarities and differences in how China and India approach climate change diplomacy. Curious? Read on!
To begin, he finds that analysts see both India and China take a “dual-track approach” climate diplomacy with both developing and developed countries, identify how India has prioritised development over climate change goals, and recognize that India has taken a dual strategy of hard and soft approaches in climate change negotiations.
Further, analysts notice a trend of India’s cooperation and competition with other countries on climate-related financing, as well, they identify great scope for India-China cooperation on pressing climate changes issues.
Lastly, they recognise the economic dimension of India’s climate change policies and highlight that the US’ policies have led them to be characterised as a divisive partner for India.
Click here to read a detailed examination of each of these themes carefully laid out in Rakshith’s working paper.
We move on to decrypting India’s response to the recent attack on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon…we’ll need more than a magnifying glass for this next section.
What’s the Hesitation? Deciphering India’s Response to Violence in Lebanon
Following the recent attack of UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, 34 countries who contributed troops to the peacekeeping force, released a joint statement, condemning Israel’s attacks. Notably absent was India’s name, despite the country having 900 personnel in this force. The decision may come as a surprise to those who recall that India was the first non-Arab country to recognise the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1974 and subsequently the State of Palestine a year later.
In her recent Op-Ed for The Diplomat, Takshashila’s Adya Madhavan scrutinises the complex considerations behind India’s tightrope walk to maintain multiple bilateral relationships, and offers some recommendations for India going forward:
India has historically been flexible in its partnerships, making choices in relation to the ebb and flow of regimes. The same way India cemented ties with Israel when it was in their interests, the tide may be shifting. While India is unlikely to be able to drastically alter its relationship with Israel overnight, it could be beneficial to abstain from high-profile engagements with Israel for the time being. The next several months are likely to shape the choices India makes regarding its policies on West Asia for the coming years. It is a pivotal time for West Asia, India, and the world.
Click here to read her full Op-Ed and better contextualise her analysis and recommendations.
Political dynamics further East have also caught the attention of our researchers. Continue on, curious reader, to learn more.
Japan Decides and We’re Paying Attention…
Takshashila’s Vanshika Saraf is paying close attention to ongoing developments related to Japan’s upcoming parliamentary elections on October 27, where the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) aims to retain its majority in the 465-member body.
But worthy of equal attention is Shigeru Ishiba's journey, following his recent victory in the LDP leadership race. While Ishiba’s political lineage may have prepared him to navigate through the LDP (along with his successful cultivation of an “endearing” public persona), his journey is characterised by moments of in-party criticism and includes defection to an opposition group in 1993.
Of greatest interest to political commentators and analysts are Ishiba’s domestic and international policy agendas. Click here to read more of Vanshika’s analysis on key issues of concern for Japan’s evolving domestic politics and her predictions with regard to Ishiba’s success or failure amidst it all.
What may be slightly more challenging to decipher is some recent activity over at Pangong Tso Lake, but fear not, we have our best minds on it. Continue reading on to see what they’ve uncovered.
What’s Happening Over at Pangong Tso Lake?
For those who have been closing following Takshashila’s geospatial research, you may have caught Dr. Y. Nithyanandam’s analysis in India Today’s article on settlements identified near the north bank of Pangong Tso Lake.
He notes:
“"More than 100 buildings, including residential structures and larger administrative buildings, are being built. Open spaces and flattened land suggest possible future use for parks or sports facilities." He also pointed out a 150-meter-long rectangular strip in the southeast corner, speculating it could be prepared for helicopter operations.”
Click here for a closer look at the finer details related to this notable development.
India’s Ideal Partner to Realise Its Manufacturing Dreams…
“In India’s quest to become a major manufacturing hub, the United States is an ideal partner”, write Takshashila’s Sarthak Pradhan and Aparna Pande (director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute) in their recent Op-Ed for The Print. In this vein, they present a strong case for the investments and technology that the U.S. can provide to India, while India is afforded the opportunity to present itself as a “China-plus-one” destination for American firms.
This analysis however comes with a word of advice from Sarthak and Aparna:
“...to unlock the potential of this partnership, both countries need to prioritise their relationship and reassess current policies. Instead of pursuing an industrial policy that selects specific sectors and incentivises certain players, a focus on creating a competitive business environment to attract foreign investors and nurture industries would better serve India’s interests. There is little reason to believe that the government’s intuition is more accurate than the market’s feedback mechanism.”
“This is not to suggest that governments have no role to play. Instead, the government should focus on enhancing the predictability and transparency of regulatory systems. This would reduce policy uncertainty for foreign investors and foster an attractive business environment. ”
Click here to take a closer look at their analysis and recommendations in The Print.
And if that were not enough, Sarthak and Aparna have helpfully mapped out clear and detailed guidance on four key areas of collaboration that could bolster US and India’s bilateral partnership in the recently released, joint Hudson-Takshashila report: US-India Economic Ties: To the Next Level and Beyond. Click here to read the report.
Let’s continue this good momentum and examine India’s other bilateral relationships, most notably, that with China in this next section.
Grab a Pen, We’re Mapping A New Modus Vivendi with China…
If Takshashila’s Chairperson of the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme, Manoj Kewalramani, were hard pressed to use one word to describe the future of the India-China relationship, he would say: volatile. In light of this, a remedial path, he argues, would be one with “a certain amount of stability and predictability”.
To that end, he has six propositions for policymakers, summarised as the following: bridge the power differential between both countries, disengage with the standoff in East Ladakh, instate regular bilateral dialogue, try new ways to reconcile the security vs. development dilemma, deepen the relationship with the Chinese people and with the US and international partners.
Click here to read Manoj’s comprehensive discussion parsing out the many complex considerations in this new way forward.
Other Chinese activities of a military nature may be cause for some consternation, but Anushka is here to guide us through it with her thoughtful analysis in this next section.
What Does China’s ICMB Test Tell Us?
A routine test? Perhaps. But perhaps not, writes Takshashila’s Anushka Saxena in her latest piece for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute as she calls into question the idea that routine testing may be the singular reason for China’s decision to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean on 25 September.
Click here to take a closer look at her analysis, as she teases out considerations around test logistics, history of the last Chinese ICBM launch, and potential Chinese signals of resolution to other countries, particularly in light of a recently failed US ICMB test.
We press on from China to NATO…but Asian?
Veto an Asian NATO?
This week’s All Things Policy episode we’d like to highlight is one between Takshashila’s Yusuf Unjhawala and Arindam Goswami, who are in conversation to discuss India’s view on a possible Asian NATO. Spoiler alert: they may warn India to steer clear.
Click here to hear them in conversation on this provocative proposition. But I have a less provocative suggestion for you, patient reader. Read on to learn more!
But Wait! There’s…A New Section in Dispatch?
Picture this with me. You walk into the Takshashila office and notice a set of books carefully laid out on the high table located on the right side of the space.
This collection is hardly picked at random - it is in fact carefully curated by our staff and centred around a theme (that changes weekly!).
We would be remiss if we didn’t share this with our online community, and in that spirit, we’re piloting a new section for you in this edition of Dispatch: Takshashila’s Tabletop Trove.
This week’s recommendations come to you from none other than Anushka Saxena, our staff research analyst, and the theme of choice is: ‘Capital’.
So without further ado, please see below our five recommended titles in line with this theme:
Five Past Midnight in Bhopal: The Epic Story of the World's Deadliest Industrial Disaster (Dominique Lapierre & Javier Moro)
SPQR: A History of Ancient Rome (Mary Beard)
Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley are Transforming the Future of War (Raj M. Shah & Christopher Khirchhoff)
Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise (Carl E. Walter & Fraser J.T. Howie)
Hyderabad: The Partition Trilogy (Manreet Sodhi Someshwar)
Happy reading!
This edition of the Dispatch was written by Kripa Koshy, Programme Manager for Takshashila’s Post Graduate Programme in Public Policy.